Now it looks like Christmas!… Pic taken 12/11/2021
Saturday – 11 Dec 2021 – 10:00am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 35 and the low this morning was -7. The cold spots hit -15! Peak winds yesterday afternoon were in the 30-35mph range. Wind chills in the valley were around zero. Wind chills along the ridge at Wolf Creek were around -20… brrrrr!
24-hour precip… Another half inch of snow fell in parts of the valley yesterday morning. Wolf Creek reported 3” in the last 24 hours to total 34” for the storm cycle!
Today through Monday will be dry as transient ridging builds back into the region.
Tuesday and Wednesday another low pressure system will move through. The strength of the warm air advection is making the snow forecast tricky. Plus a very strong jet stream could result in nasty winds.
Thursday a transient ridge will move through and we’ll be dry.
Friday through Sunday will be unsettled with a chance for precip but the system looks weak and there is considerable uncertainty with the timing. As the data gets better, I expect this vague 3-day window to narrow into a 12-24 hour window. This is typical when we’re looking at weather more than 5 days out.
Today through Monday… We’ll see lots of sun through late Monday when clouds will start increasing ahead of the next system. Temps today will remain below average with highs in the mid-20s to lower 30s and lows tonight will be in the -10 to 10 range. Highs Sunday will be a little warmer in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be -5 to 10. Monday temps will be a few degrees warmer.
Tuesday and Wednesday… There will be more clouds and another round of snow. This system will start on the warm side with the dreaded “r” word up to 8,200ft. Then the snow level will lower to 7,000ft Tuesday night. The best chance for precip is sunset Tuesday to noon on Wednesday. Scattered showers are possible on either side of this period, especially over the mountains.
Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-40s and lows that night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. The high temps on Wednesday will occur shortly after midnight in the mid to upper 30s. The lows Wednesday night will be -5 to 10.
Winds will also be a problem with this system. Winds will peak Wednesday morning around 40mph in the valley and 60-70mph in the high country.
*** Expect periods of heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and poor visibility Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. ***
My forecast snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 12-20”
We’re right on the edge of the high resolution model data (entering the 4 day window). I’ll tweak the timing, snow amounts, and winds as the data gets better.
Thursday… Skies will be partly cloudy. Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be -5 to 10.
Friday through Sunday… We’ll see more clouds and a chance for showers. At this point forecast confidence is low with the timing and precip amounts, but I’m not expecting much.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|40||60 / 1906||7||-18 / 1909|
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be tomorrow morning.