Scattered Poppers this afternoon!

Popper

A thunderstorm developed around lunch time to the west of town. There will be more this afternoon and early evening.

5-19-21: 2:30pm update…Scattered poppers through this evening.

At 2:30pm, a storm was moving towards Pagosa Springs from the NW. This storm literally developed over our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. Unfortunately, not much rain at our home from this cell.

IMG 5251
2:30 radar showed a storm moving into the Pagosa Springs area.

Our upper level low is currently in NE New Mexico where it is about to get absorbed into the flow in the plains as it tracks east. Wraparound moisture from the NW will give us a continued chance for some PM Poppers this afternoon and early evening.

Screenshot 2021 05 19 135726
Our upper level low is bringing in wraparound moisture from the NW this afternoon.

As our upper level low exits to the east, a new low and trough is currently moving into the Pacific NW this afternoon. This storm will stall to our west and give us a SW flow from Thursday night through Sunday.

Screenshot 2021 05 19 142336
A big dipper trough will set up a SW flow from Thursday evening through Sunday.
Screenshot 2021 05 19 141017
Latest 3 day rainfall forecast from the NWS.

My forecast…

The rest of the day… A chance for showers and thunderstorms through early evening. A few lucky folks may see a scattered storm that could drop a quick 0.20 or more of rain but most of us will be lucky to get more than 0.10 more rain from this system.

Thursday through Sunday: Thursday will be mostly sunny with winds picking up in the afternoon.  Look for another chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday evening through Sunday as a closed low and trough to our west puts us in a SW flow during that time frame. Thursday through the weekend looks windy with winds gusting to 30-40mph each day. I think we could I see 0.20-0.40 of precipitation for the valley and 0.30-0.50 for the mountains with some of that falling as snow. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70’s but fall to the 60’s on Friday and Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 30’s. Sunday will be mostly sunny but still a chance for afternoon storms.

My forecast liquid storm totals by Sunday (from both systems): 0.50-1.25 inches for the valley and 1-2 inches for the mountains.

-Mark Langford

Now that I have Starlink, I’m broadcasting my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) during the day. It’s pretty fun to view with storms in our area.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7080 / 19963119 / 1943

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