Rain dance time!

Weather Stations

My two weather station anemometers have been getting quite a work out over the past two weeks!

4-22-21: 2:30pm update. Two chances for rain/snow over the next five days…

A trough to our west is adding to our wind woes this afternoon as it works its way eastward. No Red Flag warnings, but winds have already exceeded 30mph at our airport, our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake and Shawn and Arleen’s home to our west.

This trough will eventually drag down a stationary front to our north along with precipitation over the next 24 hours. Although there was a chance for precipitation this morning, nothing ever materialized in our area. As I mentioned yesterday, the best odds for snow/rain will be tonight and tomorrow as the trough presses closer, then exits later on Friday. As seen in the graphic below this one, we are in the potential “thunderstorm” zone for tomorrow afternoon. Nothing severe for us but that will not be the case for Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.

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Current surface map. Pagosa Springs is the little red dot below the low pressure to our north.
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Tomorrow’s graphic for thunderstorm risk. While we are only in the “thunderstorm” category, it’s a sign that spring storm season is happening! The same trough that will be going through here tomorrow afternoon will be producing some severe storms in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
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Current NWS 3 day forecast for rainfall for our area.
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Current NWS 3 day forecast for snow for our area.

Looking down the weather road for next week, a stronger storm will move through on Monday night and Tuesday. This one looks more promising for rain/snow for our area. Below is the latest EURO model run. Once we get past tomorrow’s storm I’ll get into more detail on our next one.

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The latest EURO model run for snow/rain for Pagosa Springs for the next week.

High temperatures will remain a little below normal and our lows will stay close to normal through tomorrow. We will warm up this weekend but the latest model runs are not looking as optimistic for that first 70 degree reading as they were a couple of days ago.

The weekly drought monitor map is out this morning and it’s still filled with lots of red and yellow for western CO. Unless we get a very heavy rain event (unlikely around here) this won’t change much in the next few months. Fortunately Pagosa Springs is currently only in the “Severe Drought” category as opposed to the “Extreme and Exceptional” categories.

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My Forecast: If you find 0.20 of precipitation through Friday consider yourself lucky with this system. I think most of the valley and near mountain areas will see only 0.05-0.10 of precipitation and some possible snow showers at night and during the mornings. The mountains could see 1-3 inches of snow. Yes, I have copied and pasted the forecast from yesterday because I don’t see any changes in the model runs that warrant a change!

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176 / 1989268 / 1967

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