Time for your snow dance!

Scattered showers have developed over our mountains this afternoon - 4/16/2021

Scattered showers have developed over our mountains this afternoon – 4/16/2021

Friday – 16 Apr 2021 – 3:45pm

Overall situation…

The low this morning at the airfield was 23 and the high so far this afternoon has been 50.  Peak winds so far today at the airfield have been 22mph.

An upper level low is spinning over central Utah and will slowly move south through Sunday. It will bring the best moisture, upper level dynamics, and colder air over our area Saturday morning to Sunday morning.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 5-10” of snow valid 6am Saturday to 6pm Sunday. ***

Most of next week we will be in an in-between pattern.  I don’t see any big or well-organized weather systems, but isolated afternoon showers and a gradual warming trend look likely.

Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over central Utah.  It’s kicking up showers in the Four Corners area.  The low will slowly move south over the next few days.
Water vapor shows an upper level low spinning over central Utah.  It’s kicking up showers in the Four Corners area.  The low will slowly move south over the next few days.
Regional radar shows scattered showers over the San Juan Mountains.
Regional radar shows scattered showers over the San Juan Mountains.

My forecast…

This afternoon and evening… It will stay mostly cloudy with a slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Rain, wet snow, graupel, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are all possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms, but it will be spotty. Winds will peak around 30mph near showers.

Early Saturday morning to Sunday evening… There will be more clouds and a decent chance for precip with the best chance for precip in the valley being early Saturday morning to early Sunday morning.  Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and to a lesser extent during Sunday afternoon.

Precip Saturday morning will be wet snow with up to an inch possible on cold surfaces.  From late Saturday morning to around sunset, precip will be mixed, and then will switch back to wet snow the rest of Saturday night. Sunday will see the same precip trend, but it will be more spotty.

Locations above 7,500ft could see 1-3” of snow by Sunday morning.  Our mountains above 9,000ft will get 8-12” total by Sunday evening with most of it falling early Saturday morning to Sunday morning. High temps will be lower to upper 40s and lows will be mid-20s to low 30s.  Winds should stay under 20mph, except isolated areas near strong showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon when 30mph is possible.

Sunday night will be chilly with lows flirting with a record.  Lows will be around 10 to the lower 20s.

The NWS 3-day precip shows 0.30” in town and 1.10” up at Wolf Creek.  Other models vary from 0.15” to 0.60” in town and 0.50” to 1.25” in the mountains.
The NWS 3-day precip shows 0.30” in town and 1.10” up at Wolf Creek.  Other models vary from 0.15” to 0.60” in town and 0.50” to 1.25” in the mountains.
The NWS 3-day snowfall shows 1” in town, up to 3” in the higher parts of the valley, and 12” up at Wolf Creek.  Other models vary from 0.5” to 5” in town and 5” to 20” in the mountains. That’s a considerable variance, especially within 24-36 hours of the system.
The NWS 3-day snowfall shows 1” in town, up to 3” in the higher parts of the valley, and 12” up at Wolf Creek.  Other models vary from 0.5” to 5” in town and 5” to 20” in the mountains. That’s a considerable variance, especially within 24-36 hours of the system.

Monday and beyond… Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains.  We’ll see a gradual warming trend through the week, finally getting back to seasonal averages by Thursday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6175 / 1985249 / 1951

I’ll probably do a quick post first thing tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

6 Responses

  1. There was heavy snow falling on the easy side Wolf Creek Pass before the tunnels as I was driving back from Alamosa this afternoon around 5:00!! Once I went through the tunnels it was just lightly snowing until I reached the summit.

    1. Thanks for the report Keena! Yesterday was definitely spotty showers. Just wait 10-20 minutes or in your case, drive a few miles, and it will change.

  2. We continue to appreciate your forecasts for our corner of Colorado! And it’s great to have them available outside of Facebook. Thank you for the great weather reporting you continue to do for us.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon