Scattered showers have developed over our mountains this afternoon – 4/16/2021
Friday – 16 Apr 2021 – 3:45pm
Overall situation…
The low this morning at the airfield was 23 and the high so far this afternoon has been 50. Peak winds so far today at the airfield have been 22mph.
An upper level low is spinning over central Utah and will slowly move south through Sunday. It will bring the best moisture, upper level dynamics, and colder air over our area Saturday morning to Sunday morning.
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 5-10” of snow valid 6am Saturday to 6pm Sunday. ***
Most of next week we will be in an in-between pattern. I don’t see any big or well-organized weather systems, but isolated afternoon showers and a gradual warming trend look likely.
My forecast…
This afternoon and evening… It will stay mostly cloudy with a slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Rain, wet snow, graupel, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are all possible with the stronger showers and thunderstorms, but it will be spotty. Winds will peak around 30mph near showers.
Early Saturday morning to Sunday evening… There will be more clouds and a decent chance for precip with the best chance for precip in the valley being early Saturday morning to early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and to a lesser extent during Sunday afternoon.
Precip Saturday morning will be wet snow with up to an inch possible on cold surfaces. From late Saturday morning to around sunset, precip will be mixed, and then will switch back to wet snow the rest of Saturday night. Sunday will see the same precip trend, but it will be more spotty.
Locations above 7,500ft could see 1-3” of snow by Sunday morning. Our mountains above 9,000ft will get 8-12” total by Sunday evening with most of it falling early Saturday morning to Sunday morning. High temps will be lower to upper 40s and lows will be mid-20s to low 30s. Winds should stay under 20mph, except isolated areas near strong showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon when 30mph is possible.
Sunday night will be chilly with lows flirting with a record. Lows will be around 10 to the lower 20s.
Monday and beyond… Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains. We’ll see a gradual warming trend through the week, finally getting back to seasonal averages by Thursday.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 61 | 75 / 1985 | 24 | 9 / 1951 |
I’ll probably do a quick post first thing tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
6 Responses
THANKS
Our pleasure!
There was heavy snow falling on the easy side Wolf Creek Pass before the tunnels as I was driving back from Alamosa this afternoon around 5:00!! Once I went through the tunnels it was just lightly snowing until I reached the summit.
Thanks for the report Keena! Yesterday was definitely spotty showers. Just wait 10-20 minutes or in your case, drive a few miles, and it will change.
We continue to appreciate your forecasts for our corner of Colorado! And it’s great to have them available outside of Facebook. Thank you for the great weather reporting you continue to do for us.
You’re very welcome and thanks for the wonderful compliment!