Windy, then snowy!

3-12-21; 2pm Update

No snow recorded in the valley over the past 24 hours but Wolf Creek ski area did pick up an additional 2 inches, giving them 6 inches so far from this storm.

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Our 500mb closed low is currently located near Las Vegas, NV and moving our direction.

Our approaching 500mb closed low is kicking up some wind gusts over 30mph at our airport this afternoon. The low is currently located near Las Vegas, NV where it will be moving NE, then east over the next 48 hours as indicated in the graphic below. This is pretty close to what the models have been forecasting all week. This track gives us a modest snowfall in the valley and decent snow for the mountains.

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Current locations of Winter Weather Advisories and Watches through Sunday.

We currently are surrounded by either a Winter Storm Watch for Wolf Creek or Winter Weather Advisories for those of us in the “near mountain locations”. As of this post time, Pagosa Springs is not in a weather advisory. These advisories and watches will expire on Sunday afternoon as the low tracks to our east.

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Our best moisture fetch will be on Saturday as indicated by the darker shades of blue in this Vorticity graphic.

Heaviest snow rates for us (still no big deal) will occur on Saturday as moisture from the Pacific moves into our area. Wolf Creek will also see their heaviest snow rates during the day as well. On Sunday, the low will have moved to our east but expect more wrap around snow from the NE to continue falling, though not as much. Wolf Creek will continue to see some moderate snow throughout the day on Sunday as their location and elevation capture more wrap around moisture than the valley.

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How much snow the NWS is forecasting through Sunday.

As we have been talking about most of the week, the front range will see the most snow from this storm as the low strengthens and draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Travel in and around Denver will a real challenge this weekend. These areas are already under a Winter Storm Warning.

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NWS statewide snowfall forecast.

My snowfall forecast numbers continue to be:

The valley: 2-4 inches

Near the mountains: 3-6 inches

Our mountains: 10-15 inches-Mark Langford

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