3-12-21; 2pm Update
No snow recorded in the valley over the past 24 hours but Wolf Creek ski area did pick up an additional 2 inches, giving them 6 inches so far from this storm.
Our approaching 500mb closed low is kicking up some wind gusts over 30mph at our airport this afternoon. The low is currently located near Las Vegas, NV where it will be moving NE, then east over the next 48 hours as indicated in the graphic below. This is pretty close to what the models have been forecasting all week. This track gives us a modest snowfall in the valley and decent snow for the mountains.
We currently are surrounded by either a Winter Storm Watch for Wolf Creek or Winter Weather Advisories for those of us in the “near mountain locations”. As of this post time, Pagosa Springs is not in a weather advisory. These advisories and watches will expire on Sunday afternoon as the low tracks to our east.
Heaviest snow rates for us (still no big deal) will occur on Saturday as moisture from the Pacific moves into our area. Wolf Creek will also see their heaviest snow rates during the day as well. On Sunday, the low will have moved to our east but expect more wrap around snow from the NE to continue falling, though not as much. Wolf Creek will continue to see some moderate snow throughout the day on Sunday as their location and elevation capture more wrap around moisture than the valley.
As we have been talking about most of the week, the front range will see the most snow from this storm as the low strengthens and draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Travel in and around Denver will a real challenge this weekend. These areas are already under a Winter Storm Warning.
My snowfall forecast numbers continue to be:
The valley: 2-4 inches
Near the mountains: 3-6 inches
Our mountains: 10-15 inches-Mark Langford
