Dry through Tuesday morning – wet Tuesday afternoon into Friday evening…

Hot air balloons over the San Juan River – Colorfest in Pagosa Springs CO – pics taken 9/19/2026

Sunday – 20 Sep 2026 – 2:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 71, Low: 51, Peak wind: 14mph, Afternoon humidity: 40-45%

Saturday: High: 71, Low: 45, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 26-31%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
72	83 / 1984	35	18 / 1971

Precipitation summary… Precip amounts were mostly under 0.05” each of the last two days but a few lucky folks got a bit more.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Saturday morning ranged from a trace to 0.12”. Most locations got less than 0.05”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning ranged from a trace to 0.41”. Most locations got less than 0.05”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite early Sunday afternoon – The trough, red dashed line, moved to our east yesterday. Drier air has moved into the Four Corners area behind the trough. The low currently off the CA coast will move over the Vegas area Tuesday and then the Salt Lake area Tuesday night. Southerly flow ahead of the low will draw another round of moisture and rain into our area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** The Swiss Roll Fire, burning about 14 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs, is 777 acres and 36% contained. The fire has received quite a bit of rain recently. ***

*** Rest of Sunday through Tuesday morning will be mostly sunny with temps near average. ***

*** Tuesday afternoon into Friday evening will be wet with off and on showers and thunderstorms. ***

Rest of Sunday and Monday… Upper-level flow is more westerly and has pushed the moisture to our east. We will see a few clouds build over the mountains each afternoon, but I expect us to be dry.

Tuesday through Friday… The high is expected to wobble around the TX region while a weak low moves over the Vegas area and then over the Salt Lake area Tuesday and Wednesday. Southerly flow between these two features will funnel subtropical moisture into our area while instability is marginal.

I feel more confident about rain Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday than I do about Thursday and Friday.

The forecast models are lining up better, but there is still a variance in outcomes. *** At this point, I expect us to get 0.75” to 1.25” between Tuesday afternoon and Friday evening. ***

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Monday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Thursday and Friday, each day highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Saturday and next Sunday, highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Winds…

Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Monday through next weekend, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

*WPC precip to late Friday evening (25 Sep) shows 1.19” in the Pagosa area. Forecast models for this period range from 0.90” to 1.35”. That’s a lot more consistent than the last few days.*

24 Sep to 5 Oct… It’s transition season. We are gradually switching from a summer monsoon to a fall pattern. Forecast models always struggle during transitions seasons. They are widely fluctuating and unreliable.

Right now, I’m sticking with the typical seasonal shift of the summer high weakening and the jet stream slowly dipping farther south. I don’t expect much precip during this period.

Euro ensemble total precip to 5 Oct shows 2.45” in the Pagosa area. I think this is on the high end. I’d be surprised if we get this much. — *Euro ensemble total precip to 5 Oct shows 2.45” in the Pagosa area.*
*I think this is on the high end. I’d be surprised if we get this much.*

*Euro ensemble total snow to 5 Oct shows up to 2” in our mountains. I do not see any fall-like low-pressure systems on the horizon.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. On and off showers are likely Tuesday afternoon into Friday evening. There’s a lull next weekend. Another round of hit and miss showers is possible next Monday and Tuesday, and then it’s less active and drying out for the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 5 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
On and off showers are likely Tuesday afternoon into Friday evening. There’s a lull next weekend. Another round of hit and miss showers is possible next Monday and Tuesday, and then it’s less active and drying out for the rest of the period.

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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