A little more active the second half of the week…

Another glorious Pagosa Country sunset! – pic taken 7/30/2026

Saturday – 1 Aug 2026 – 4:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 89, Low: 54, Peak wind: 28mph, Afternoon humidity: 16-20%

Friday: High: 92, Low: 54, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 12-18%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	90 / 1993	47	37 / 1958

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last two days.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Saturday at 4pm – The high is to our west and has cut-off monsoon moisture. Flow around the high is indicated by the blue arrows. Monsoon moisture is outlined in green. — *Water vapor satellite Saturday at 4pm – The high is to our west and has cut off monsoon moisture. Flow around the high is indicated by the blue arrows. Monsoon moisture is outlined in green.*

*Radar at 4:10pm Saturday – There have been a couple of weak, spotty showers over Archuleta County. Storms are moving north to south across the entire region.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons are drying things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Mostly dry and warm through Tuesday. ***

*** The scond half of next week will be a little more active with a few spotty storms each afternoon and evening. ***

*** Rio Blanco Fire: For the most current information follow Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office or Rio Blanco Fire on Facebook and the Watch Duty app. ***

Rest of Saturday through Tuesday… The monsoon is taking a break from us. It’s dry and warm with moderate instability. There is a slight chance for a spotty storm each afternoon and evening, but most of us will stay dry.

Wednesday through the rest of next week… Monsoon moisture and instability will increase a little. There will be a few hit and miss storms most afternoons and evenings. It’s weak, but it’s better than nothing.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Sunday through next Saturday highs will be in the high 80s to mid 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.05” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this is expected the second half of next week. Precip amounts are trending down. My optimism is waning. — *NBM precip to next Saturday evening shows 0.05” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this is expected the second half of next week.*
**Precip amounts are trending down. My optimism is waning.**

8 Aug to 16 Aug… The subtropical high will be to our west through 10 or 11 Aug – yuck. Starting around 12 Aug, it will slide to our east and bring monsoon moisture and instability back into the Four Corners region.

*Euro ensemble precip to 16 Aug shows 1.14” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have bounced around over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 16 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. There’s a slight chance for a few weak storms through around 10 Aug and then it’s more active through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 16 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*There’s a slight chance for a few weak storms through 10 or 11 Aug and then it’s more active through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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