Partly cloudy skies and mostly dry for the next week…

Beautiful mountain winter scene on our last walk – pic taken 4/15/2026

Friday – 17 Apr 2026 – 5:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 53, Low: 24, Peak wind: 22mph

Thursday: High: 58, Low: 24, Peak wind: 29mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
61	75 / 1962	25	10 / 1930

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 2 days.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Purple arrows indicate upper-level flow. We have cleared out behind the frontal system (red dashed lines). The ridge off the west coast, jagged blue line, will keep us dry through the weekend. The ridge will move to our east Monday and then we’ll see a little moisture and instability.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Hard freeze is likely Friday and Saturday nights. Hard freeze is possible Sunday night. ***

*** Weak chances for isolated showers next week, but most of us will stay dry. ***

Forecast details…

Friday evening through Sunday… A transient ridge will bring us partly cloudy skies and dry weather.

Monday through next Friday … It’s a wishy-washy, weak weather pattern with the ridge to our east, upper-level southwest flow, and a little instability and moisture. There’s a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm each day, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

On Thursday, a fast-moving low pressure system will kick up the winds and drop temps 5-10 degrees.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the low teens to the low 20s.

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to the mid 20s.

Sunday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to the low 70s and the lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.

Thursday and next Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to the low 60s and *** lows will be in the low to high 20s ***.

Winds…

Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 30-35mph in the high country.

Wednesday and Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph in the Pagosa area and 40-50mph in the high country.

Next Friday, afternoon gusts will be around 25mph in the Pagosa area and 35-40mph in the high country.

Euro precip to next Friday evening shows 0.06” near Pagosa and up 0.20” in our mountains. I think most of us will stay dry through this period. — *Euro precip to next Friday evening shows 0.06” near Pagosa and up 0.20” in our mountains.*
**I think most of us will stay dry through this period.**

24 Apr to 2 May… Much of this period looks active but precip amounts are light.

*Euro ensemble precip to 2 May shows 0.82” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended down.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 2 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. After today’s storm, it’s mostly dry for the first week. Then it’s active the second week but precip amounts are light. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area through 2 May. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
*After today’s storm, it’s mostly dry for the first week. Then it’s active the second week but precip amounts are light.*

The next post will be on Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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