“Red sky in the morning” is a precursor to precip tonight! – pic was taken 3/31/2026
Tuesday – 31 Mar 2026 – 3:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Sunday: High: 68, Low: 29, Peak wind: 29mph
Monday: High: 68, Low: 32, Peak wind: 39mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 53 | 72 / 1966 | 19 | 3 / 1931 |
Precipitation summary… There have been a few spotty raindrops in the area early Tuesday afternoon. I’m confident that there will be measurable precip tonight!
Current satellite and radar…
The main batch of precip is still to our west and will begin moving into the area later this evening.
Forecast highlights…
*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the mountains above 9,000ft. 8-12” of snow with locally higher amounts and winds gusting to 50mph are expected 6pm Tuesday to 9pm Wednesday. ***
*** Valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Expect winter driving conditions in the mountains. ***
*** Chance for a few spotty showers Thursday and Friday and then dry through the weekend. ***
Forecast details…
Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening… A cold front will move through with a decent batch of moisture and storm energy. High temps will be 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow.
Precip will ramp up Tuesday evening after 10pm and then fall in waves into early Wednesday evening. There’s a good chance for a few embedded thunderstorms.
Snow levels…
Tuesday evening around 10,200ft
Wednesday at sunrise around 9,800ft
Wednesday at noon: around 8,500ft
Wednesday evening around 8,700ft
Precip amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-16” of snow
Pagosa Springs area above 8,500ft: up to 1″ of snow
Pagosa Springs area: 0.70” to 1.00” of rain
Thursday through Monday… Thursday there could be a few residual spotty showers over the mountains as the system clears out. Precip amounts will be low.
Friday a trough will move through northern Colorado and kick up our winds, and maybe a few showers over the mountains along The Divide.
A weak ridge will build over the region during the weekend and keep us dry.
Temps…
Tuesday night lows will be in the low 30s to the low 40s.
Wednesday highs will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the low 50s to near 60. Thursday night lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s. Friday night lows will be in the mid-teens to the mid 20s. Saturday night lows will be near 20 to the high 20s.
Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s.
Monday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Winds…
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 30mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 40-45mph in the high country.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph in the Pagosa Springs area and 25-30mph in the high country.
In the last two days precip amounts have trended up. Boy do we need this moisture!
In the last two days snow amounts have trended up.
7 Apr to 15 Apr… Some of the forecast models are dry and some are a little wet. Their inconsistency means they’re unreliable. I don’t see anything to get excited about.
After a lengthy period of record high temps and worsening drought conditions across much of the western US, this is great to see!
It clearly shows the Wednesday storm. There’s another dry period through next Monday or Tuesday. Then the weather pattern is disorganized through the rest of the period.
I’ll do a quick Facebook post Wednesday morning and then a more thorough post Wednesday afternoon. Plus we’ll be working on the monthly newsletter and monthly weather summary.
– Shawn
