A weak monsoon pattern will persist …

Hope to see you at the Humane Society Auction for the Animals and Pet Fashion Show on Saturday, 6 Sep! Here’s the LINK for more info.

Sunday – 31 Aug 2025 – 3:40pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 69, Low: 51, Minimum relative humidity: 49%, Peak Wind: 12mph

Saturday: High: 76, Low: 43, Minimum relative humidity: 27%, Peak Wind: 20mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90 / 1985	41	30 / 1962

Precipitation summary… Most of this morning’s 24-hour CoCoRaHS reports were zero but a few folks reported 0.01” to 0.03”.

A few folks got decent rain on Friday. Those reports are below.

30 Aug 2025 pm CoCoRaHS 24hr precip — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.20”.*

Fire and smoke…

Things have been quiet in Archuleta County, but multiple new fires have popped up in Rio Arriba County to our south in NM. All recent fires in our region have been quickly maintained.

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the largest fire near us. The last update was 10,249 acres and 42% contained.

*Fire and smoke map late Sunday afternoon – Smoke is minimal over southwest Colorado. Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area is good, but it is marginal closer to the Four Corners.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 1:45pm to 2:45pm Sunday – The monsoon plume is to our south moving through southeast AZ and southern NM. There is instability over the San Juan Mountains, but lack of moisture is limiting shower and thunderstorm activity.

Radar at 3pm Sunday – There are a few weak showers in the region. The showers north of Archuleta County are moving towards the south-southeast while the showers of Archuleta County are moving towards the east-southeast. — Radar at 3pm Sunday – There are a few weak showers in the region. The showers north of Archuleta County are moving towards the south-southeast while the showers south of Archuleta County are moving towards the east-southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Weak monsoon activity with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Sunday through next Sunday… A weak monsoon will persist.

Moisture will be marginal, but instability will be high. There will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. “Slow movers” could drop a surprise amount of rain on a few small areas, but I expect low precip amounts for most of us.

Temps…

Sunday through Friday highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s. The cold spots will dip into the high 30s.

Saturday and next Sunday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

*WPC precip to next Sunday afternoon shows 0.24” near Pagosa and up to 0.80” in our mountains.*

The 8-14 day period… Monsoon activity will remain marginal. There will still be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, but we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 15 Sep at 6am shows 1.12” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.59”. I’d be surprised if we get this much. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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