That was a “fun” one!…

Finally there was some decent rain! – Pic taken 8/26/2025

Finally there was some decent rain! – Pic taken 8/26/2025

Wednesday – 27 Aug 2025 – 1:50pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 80, Low: 51, Minimum relative humidity: 30%, Peak Wind: 21mph

Monday: High: 80, Low: 46, Minimum relative humidity: 32%, Peak Wind: 35mph

Tuesday: High: 78, Low: 54, Minimum relative humidity: 32%, Peak Wind: 47mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7988 / 19854226 / 1956

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got a decent soaking yesterday! Below are CoCoRaHS maps starting with Monday.

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Monday morning ranged from zero to 0.21”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Monday morning ranged from zero to 0.21”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Tuesday morning ranged from a trace to 0.78”. Most folks were in the 0.10” to 0.25” range.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Tuesday morning ranged from a trace to 0.78”. Most folks were in the 0.10” to 0.25” range.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Wednesday morning ranged from a 0.08” to 0.53”. Most folks were in the 0.25” to 0.45” range.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Wednesday morning ranged from a 0.08” to 0.53”. Most folks were in the 0.25” to 0.45” range.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals for Monday and Tuesday range from 0.21” to 1.18”. Most folks were in the 0.35” to 0.75” range. I expected more locations to be around an inch.
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip totals for Monday and Tuesday range from 0.21” to 1.18”. Most folks were in the 0.35” to 0.75” range.
I expected more locations to get around an inch.

Fire and smoke…

More small fires have popped up in Archuleta County and surrounding counties, but so far, they have been quickly contained.

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. The last report was 10,249 acres and 42% contained. There was no update due to weather. This fire and most of the fires in the region got rain in the last few days.

Fire and smoke map late Wednesday morning – Smoke is minimal over southwest Colorado.  Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area is good.
Fire and smoke map late Wednesday morning – Smoke is minimal over southwest Colorado.  
Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area is good.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite late Wednesday morning – The main part of the monsoon plume has moved to our east – the green line. Drier air will move in from the southwest. Tropical Storm Juliette is expected to move quickly through our area on Friday. There won’t be much left of it.
Water vapor satellite late Wednesday morning – The main part of the monsoon plume has moved to our east – the green line. Drier air will move in from the southwest. Tropical Storm Juliette is expected to move quickly through our area on Friday. There won’t be much left of it.
Radar at 1:39pm Wednesday – A few spotty showers and thunderstorms are moving west to east across the region.
Radar at 1:39pm Wednesday – A few spotty showers and thunderstorms are moving west to east across the region.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Weak monsoon activity with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Wednesday through next Wednesday… Monsoon moisture and instability will ebb and flow, but mostly stay marginal. It’s a weak monsoon pattern.

Wednesday and Friday afternoons and early evenings showers and thunderstorms will be a coin toss. Wednesday we’re on the back of edge of the current monsoon plume.  Friday we could see a little more moisture as the remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette move quickly through the region.

Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday there’s just a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Monday and the rest of next week, moisture will be marginal, but instability will be high. There will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. “Slow movers” could drop a surprise amount of rain on a few small areas, but I expect low precip amounts for most of us.

Temps…

Wednesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Thursday to next Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows 0.08” near Pagosa and up to 0.60” in our mountains.
NBM precip to next Wednesday evening shows 0.08” near Pagosa and up to 0.60” in our mountains.

The 8-14 day period… Monsoon activity will remain marginal. There will still be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, but we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 11 Sep at 6am shows 0.92” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.24”. I’d be surprised if we get this much. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 11 Sep at 6am shows 0.92” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 1.24”. I’d be surprised if we get this much. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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