Still confident we’ll get a soaking…

Mammatus clouds are a sign of instability and often associated strong thunderstorms. Unfortunately our clouds have been more bark than bite. – Pic taken 8/22/2025

Mammatus clouds are a sign of instability and often associated strong thunderstorms. Unfortunately our clouds have been more bark than bite. – Pic taken 8/22/2025

Sunday – 24 Aug 2025 – 5:15pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 82, Low: 51, Minimum relative humidity: 25%, Peak Wind: 26mph

Saturday: High: 86, Low: 52, Minimum relative humidity: 20%, Peak Wind: 28mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7988 / 19854329 / 1956

Precipitation summary… So far precip amounts have been disappointing. But don’t give up hope yet!

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Sunday morning ranged from zero to 0.23”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Sunday morning ranged from zero to 0.23”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.18”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.18”. Most folks reported less than 0.05”.

Fire and smoke…

More small fires popped up in Archuleta County and surrounding counties, but so far, most have been quickly contained.

The Trail Canyon Fire was reported at 12:45pm today in south-central Archuleta County, about 2 miles north-northeast of Juanita. It’s at 7.15 acres as of 4:43pm.

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. It has burned 10,233 acres and is 41% contained.

Fire and smoke map on Sunday afternoon – Smoke is minimal over southwest Colorado.  Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area is good.
Fire and smoke map on Sunday afternoon – Smoke is minimal over southwest Colorado.  Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area is good.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3:40pm to 4:40pm on Sunday – The monsoon is set up over the region. Unfortunately for most of Archuleta County, blow-off cirrus clouds from the first few showers and thunderstorms today, blocked the sun and robbed the next round of potential storms of energy.
Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3:40pm to 4:40pm on Sunday – The monsoon is set up over the region. Unfortunately for most of Archuleta County, blow-off cirrus clouds from the first few showers and thunderstorms today, blocked the sun and robbed the next round of potential storms of energy.
Radar at 3:24pm Sunday – The western part of the county was stable while the eastern part was unstable.
Radar at 3:24pm Sunday – The western part of the county was stable while the eastern part was unstable.
Radar at 4:50pm Sunday – It’s still active over the eastern part of the county while the western part of the county gets nothing – ugh. Storms are moving slowly towards the east.
Radar at 4:50pm Sunday – It’s still active over the eastern part of the county while the western part of the county gets nothing – ugh. Storms are moving slowly towards the east.

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to Thursday afternoon. ***

*** The best chance for a good soaking is Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Sunday through next Sunday… The monsoon is back through Wednesday and then will gradually taper off the rest of this period.

*** The ingredients come together best Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. The rain lottery winners will get over an inch of rain! ***

Monsoon storms can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Thursday will be a transition day as monsoon moisture and instability gradually decrease so storm activity will be less.

Friday through next Sunday moisture and stability will be marginal for afternoon storms. There’s just a slight chance for a few isolated storms each day.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Monday will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the high 40s to low 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s. Tuesday night lows will be in the near 50 to the mid-50s and Wednesday night lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Thursday to next Sunday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

WPC precip to Thursday evening shows 1.40” near Pagosa and up to 2.25” in our mountains. *** Most of this is expected Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. ***
WPC precip to Thursday evening shows 1.40” near Pagosa and up to 2.25” in our mountains. *** Most of this is expected Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. ***
24 Aug 2025 pm Euro 4 day precip 1
Euro precip from Thursday evening to Sunday evening shows 0.10” near Pagosa and up to 0.60” in our mountains. This is spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… Monsoon activity will taper off during this period. There will still be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, but we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

Euro ensemble precip to 8 Sep at 6am shows 2.18” in the Pagosa area. The inset shows precip amounts for each day with today on the left and 8 Sep on the right. Most of the precip is expected between now and Wednesday evening and then there’s a slow-steady upward trend. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip to 8 Sep at 6am shows 2.18” in the Pagosa area. The inset shows precip amounts for each day with today on the left and 8 Sep on the right. Most of the precip is expected between now and Wednesday evening and then there’s a slow-steady upward trend. It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Ski & bow rack logo with an archer
Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors
Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

The Springs Resort logo
Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Categories

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

© 2026 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon