A good soaking is on the way…

Sun setting behind a big ponderosa. See the photo bomber? – Pic taken 8/20/2025

Friday – 22 Aug 2025 – 5:10pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 86, Low: 56, Minimum relative humidity: 20%, Peak Wind: 25mph

Thursday: High: *90*, Low: 52, Minimum relative humidity: 16%, Peak Wind: 24mph

*Tied the record high that occurred in 1910*

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	91 / 1910	44	29 / 1956

Precipitation summary…

*Thursday afternoon a shower moved through the Forest Lake area and dropped up to 0.15”, but most of the county hardly got anything.*

*Late Wednesday afternoon a cell parked over Rick’s house in Pagosa Meadows and dumped 0.75”! The rest of the county hardly got anything.*

Fire and smoke…

A few small fires popped up in nearby La Plata County and New Mexico’s San Juan County, but they were contained quickly.

Stoner Mesa, just west of Rico, is the most active fire near us. It has burned 9,913 acres and is 27% contained.

*Fire and smoke map on Friday afternoon – Smoke has increased a little in southwest Colorado. Air quality in the Pagosa Springs area varies between good and moderate.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop from roughly 3:40pm to 4:40pm on Friday – We are on the east edge of a moist and active monsoon plume. Most of the clouds over Archuleta County are from dissipating storms that popped up shortly after noon.

*Radar at 4:50pm Friday – There are a few pockets of light rain over Archuleta County, but showers are dissipating.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Stage 2 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the entire San Juan National Forest. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for Archuleta County and the Town of Pagosa***

*** Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to next Friday. ***

*** The best chance for a good soaking is Tuesday and Wednesday. ***

*** If you spot smoke, call Archuleta County dispatch at 970-731-2160. ***

Rest of Friday through next Friday… The monsoon is back!

Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both be high – as they should be this time of year! Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into each evening.

*** The ingredients come together best on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rain lottery winners will get over an inch of rain! ***

Thursday and Friday will be transition days as monsoon moisture and instability gradually decrease so we’ll see less storm activity.

Monsoon storms can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Saturday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Sunday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Monday through next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.

WPC precip to next Friday evening shows 1.83” near Pagosa and up to 3.50” in our mountains. *** Most of this is expected Monday afternoon to Wednesday evening. ***

The 8-14 day period… Monsoon activity will taper off during this period. There will still be a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms most days, but we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

On the top, Euro ensemble precip to 6 Sep at 6am shows 2.53” in the Pagosa area. On the bottom, GFS ensemble precip shows 2.79”. Precip amounts are trending up. Precip totals will vary considerably.

The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us. I’m more pessimistic about the 8-14 day period. I think we’ll be lucky to get average precip. — *The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect above average precip for us.*
*I’m more pessimistic about the 8-14 day period. I think we’ll be lucky to get average precip.*

Unless something interesting pops up, the next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon