Merry Christmas from Pagosa Weather! – AI generated image
Tuesday – 24 Dec 2024 – 3:45pm
The past…
There has been no data from Stevens Field since 11:19am on 9 December.
Highs yesterday were mostly in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows this morning were mostly in the low teens to low 20s.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 38 | 56 / 1943 | 3 | -34 / 1990 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A little snow on Christmas Day ***
*** A few more snowflakes possible Thursday and Friday. ***
*** Dry with seasonal temps through the weekend. ***
Rest of Tuesday… A transient ridge will give us mostly sunny skies during the day and then increasing clouds through the evening when the ridge moves to our east.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.
Christmas Day… Santa will bring us a low-pressure system and some snow.
Timing…The first few scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains on hour two before sunrise and over the valley an hour or two after sunrise. The best chance for snow is mid-morning to sunset. Scattered snowshowers will taper off over the mountains by midnight.
Snow levels could briefly pop up to 7,000-7,200ft tomorrow afternoon.
Snow amounts…
Wolf Creek area: 2-4”
Pagosa area: a dusting to 1”
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
This looks good to me.
Thursday and Friday… Moisture will continue to stream through the region but there won’t be much storm energy. A weak upper-level trough will move through Friday evening and then clouds will clear and isolated snowshowers will end.
Snow amounts…
Near Pagosa: zero to a half inch
Mountains: 1-2”
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Saturday through Monday… A flat ridge will be in control with mostly dry upper-level flow out of the west-northwest. We’ll see occasional patches of mid and high clouds as weak troughs skirt to our north.
Winds… Saturday and Sunday afternoon peaks will 10-15mph. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
The 8-15 day period… The pattern will stay active along the West Coast and Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately it looks like a pretty typical La Nina pattern. We’ll pick up a few “scraps”. I don’t see anything significant on the horizon.
Neither of these indicates anything to get excited about, but there is a considerable difference between them.
The GFS is more active and expects us to get more precip.
The GFS for the same time period on the right shows 0.96”.
Let’s cheer for the GFS!
My next post will be on Thursday. Merry Christmas!
– Shawn
