Lenticular clouds over the mountains this morning – Pic taken 11/3/2024
Sunday – 3 Nov 2024 – 1:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Saturday was 57. The low Sunday morning was 34.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 22mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 54 | 74 / 1945 | 19 | -6 / 1991 |
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 1” of new snow this morning.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Roads could be slick in the mountains into Monday afternoon. ***
*** Tuesday night into Friday afternoon the first good snow of the season is possible in the valley. ***
Rest of Sunday through Monday evening… A low will move west to east across central NM. Upper-level flow and storm energy won’t line up well for us, so I don’t expect much precip.
Timing…
Hit and miss showers will persist until the system moves through Monday evening. Precip will be mostly light but could cause poor driving conditions, especially in the mountains.
Snow levels will be up to 7,600ft during the day and around 6,500ft at night.
Snow amounts for this period:
Mountains above 9,000ft: 1-3”
Valley: up to a half inch in the lucky spots
Winds… Sunday peaks will be 10-15mph and Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Sunday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows Sunday night will be in the low to high 20s. Monday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows Monday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Monday evening to Tuesday evening… Transient ridging will give us a brief break. Patches of clouds will continue to move through. Spotty snowshowers will develop over the mountains by late Tuesday evening.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the low 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Tuesday night into Friday evening… The next low-pressure system will move through. Upper-level flow, storm energy, and moisture line up best Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The low will move to our east by Friday afternoon.
Timing… The first scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains late Tuesday evening and then over the valley after midnight. The heaviest precip will fall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Precip Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon will be hit and miss showers and won’t add up to much.
Snow levels…
Tuesday night: around 6,000ft
Wednesday: around 6,000ft
Thursday: 6,000- 6,500ft
Friday: 6,500-7,000ft
Snow amounts for this period…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 12-20”
Valley above 7,600ft: 6-10”
Valley below 7,600ft: 3-6”
*** Most of this will fall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Expect poor driving conditions Wednesday night and Thursday morning. ***
Winds… Gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Lows Friday night will be in the low teens to low 20s.
My next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
