Enjoy the great weather!…

Fall colors are peaking in places! – pic taken by Arleen on 9/30/2024

Fall colors are peaking in some places. This is near Cumbres Pass. – pic taken by Arleen on 9/30/2024

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Tuesday – 1 Oct 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday was 78 and on Monday it was 79. The low this morning was 43. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 18mph and on Monday it was 22mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6982 / 19803220 / 1965

Precipitation summary… A couple of lucky spots got some rain in the last two days, but amounts are minimal.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Tuesday morning – The high off the CA coast and ridge are forcing the storm track well to our north.  We have weak flow out of the northwest in our area that will keep us dry and stable.
Satellite Tuesday morning – The high off the CA coast and ridge are forcing the storm track well to our north.  We have weak flow out of the northwest in our area that will keep us dry and stable.

There is nothing on radar Tuesday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots could flirt with freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun and pleasant fall temps for a while. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Monday… Today a little residual moisture and weak instability could kick up an afternoon shower or thunderstorm or thunderstorm.  Otherwise, a blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

NBM precip through Monday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains.
NBM precip through Monday evening shows a few raindrops over the mountains.

The 8-14 day period… The blocking high will keep us mostly dry, with lots of sun, and temps slightly above average.

Euro ensemble precip to 15 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.16” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.41”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.
Euro ensemble precip to 15 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.16” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.41”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.

The next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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