A spotty shower today and tomorrow, otherwise a lot of sun…

A pretty rainbow on Friday evening – pic taken 9/27/2024

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Sunday – 29 Sep 2024 – 4:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday was 82 and on Saturday it was 80. The low this morning was 45. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 25mph and on Saturday it was 7mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
70	83 / 1957	33	20 / 1908

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning loop from roughly 3:10pm to 4:10pm Saturday afternoon – It’s a little more unstable than I expected today. A few weak showers have popped up over the mountains this afternoon. — Satellite and lightning loop from roughly 3:10pm to 4:10pm Sunday afternoon – It’s a little more unstable than I expected today. A few weak showers have popped up over the mountains this afternoon.

Radar at 4:40pm Saturday afternoon – Weak showers are moving towards the east and southeast. They’ll dissipate this evening and develop again Monday afternoon. — *Radar at 4:40pm Sunday afternoon – Weak showers are moving towards the east and southeast. They’ll dissipate this evening and develop again Monday afternoon.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots could flirt with freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun and pleasant fall temps for a while. ***

Rest of Sunday through Saturday… For most of this period a blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.

Sunday evening and Monday afternoon a weak trough is causing just enough instability and moisture for a spotty shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.

*NBM precip through Saturday evening shows less than 0.05” for a few lucky parts of the county.*

The 8-14 day period… The blocking high will keep us mostly dry, with lots of sun, and temps slightly above average.

*Euro ensemble precip to 14 Oct at 6am on the left expects 0.16” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.32”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.*

The next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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