Important update about FLOOD event

The NWS rain forecast expects 2.7″ of rain for Pagosa Springs (circled in black). Note that the precip bullseyes are over the Upper Four Mile, Piedra, and Vallecito drainages.

Wednesday – 21 Oct 2026 – 9am

We have a few challenging days ahead of us.

An impressive fire hose will be pointed at us. There is a *** FLOOD WATCH *** in effect Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

I expect the Pagosa Springs area to get 2-3″ of rain and our mountains to get 4-5″. A few of the more wet forecast models expect around 3.5″ of rain for Pagosa.

The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is expected to hit “minor flood” stage around sunrise Friday.

Archuleta County Sheriff’s Office, Archuleta County Public Works, and Upper San Juan Search and Rescue have filled hundreds of sand bags that are available at 2 locations:

Public Works building 1122 US Hwy 84

County substation at 95 County Road 973 in Arboles

Keep an eye on Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office for road closures and other announcements.

– Shawn

The San Juan River is expected to crest at 6am Friday at 10.75ft and 4,720cfs. I listed 4 wild cards that could result in higher peak. — *The San Juan River is expected to crest at 6am Friday at 10.75ft and 4,720cfs. I listed 4 wild cards that could result in a higher peak.*

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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