The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs peaked at 2,900cfs Wednesday afternoon. It was about 1.6ft from “minor flood” stage. The river dropped below 1,000cfs Friday morning. – Pic taken 10/14/2026 at noon
Friday – 16 Oct 2026 – 3:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Wednesday: High: 49, Low: 35, Peak wind: 38mph
Thursday: High: 60, Low: 30, Peak wind: 23mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 66 | 85 / 1940 | 26 | 13 / 1975 |
Precipitation summary… We had one more round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning that added to our rain totals. Month to date totals are below.
Current satellite, radar, and river levels…
By Tuesday morning a deep low-pressure system will be spinning off the central CA coast. This will draw tropical moisture from Simon and Trudy, outlined in green, into the Four Corners area. The low is expected to move through AZ late Thursday and then over us Friday afternoon.
There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** A HARD FREEZE is likely again Friday night. Temps will dip below freezing again Saturday night and then should stay above freezing most of next week. ***
*** Lots of sun and dry Friday and Saturday. ***
*** Sunday and Monday afternoons there will be more clouds and scattered showers. ***
*** Monday night into next Friday will be cloudy with valley rain and mountain snow. The heaviest precip is likely Wednesday evening into Friday morning. ***
Rest of Friday through Sunday morning… We will be between a ridge to our north and a cutoff low spinning over the Baja Peninsula – a Rex block. There will be lots of sun and pleasant fall temps.
Sunday afternoon into Monday evening… The Rex block will break down. Upper-level southwest flow will push a little more moisture and instability into the region.
Sunday afternoon into the evening there will be a few scattered light showers, mostly over the mountains. Monday scattered showers will increase. Precip amounts will be spotty and light.
Snow levels will bounce between 10,500ft and 11,500ft. Wolf Creek Pass could get a quick snowshower or two, but accumulations will be minimal. Lucky spots above 11,500ft could get an inch or two of snow.
Monday night through next Friday… Here we go again. The next storm will be similar to the previous storm. Things are lining up for another soaker.
Timing… Bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically move through Monday night through Wednesday evening. The heaviest precip will fall Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease through the rest of Friday.
Snow levels… Monday night through Thursday afternoon the snow level will hover around 11,500ft. Thursday night it will drop to around 10,000ft. By Friday evening it will be around 9,000ft.
Rain and snow amounts…
Mountains above 11,500ft: 12-18”
Mountains 10,000-11,500ft: 2-6” Thursday night and Friday
Pagosa Springs area: 2” to 3” of rain. Short periods of graupel are likely Thursday night and Friday.
*** There is still a lot of uncertainty. I will continue to make adjustments as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Friday night lows will be in the *** mid 20s to the low 30s ***.
Saturday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and lows will be in the low to high 40s.
Thursday and next Friday highs will be near 50 to the mid 50s. Thursday night lows will be in the highs 30s to the mid 40s. Friday night lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.
Winds…
Saturday and Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 10-15mph.
Tuesday and Wednesday, gusts will be 15-20mph. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday and next Friday, gusts will be 20-25mph. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Other models… Euro: 4.40”, GFS: 1.24”, Canadian: 5.40”, Euro AI: 2.79”, GFS AI: 3.68”, Euro ensemble: 3.09”, GFS ensemble: 1.70”, Canadian ensemble: 2.69”, Euro AI ensemble: 2.35”, GFS AI ensemble: 1.74”.
That’s a big variance but most of the models expect over 2” in the Pagosa area.
23 Oct to 31 Oct… The pattern will try to remain active with more chances for precip.
It’s dry through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon through Wednesday morning there are scattered showers. It’s wet Wednesday afternoon through next Friday. The rest of the period looks active but there is a lot of uncertainty.
The next post will be on Sunday.
– Shawn
