Lots of sun and mostly dry through Monday – next storm late Tuesday through next Friday…

The pups love the snow! This at 11,400ft, above Wolf Creek Pass. There was 4-6” of snow to play in. Roads were slick! – Pic taken 10/14/2026

The pups love the snow! This at 11,400ft, above Wolf Creek Pass. There was 4-6” of snow to play in. Roads were slick! – Pic taken 10/14/2026

Wednesday – 14 Oct 2026 – 3:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 59, Low: 45, Peak wind: 9mph

Tuesday: High: 54, Low: 43, Peak wind: 32mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6685 / 19402613 / 1975

Precipitation summary… It’s been an impressive few days. Bands of heavy showers, hail, gusty winds, poor visibility, and lightning repeatedly moved through the county and gave us a good soaking.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain amounts reported Tuesday morning range from 0.21” to 0.52”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain amounts reported Wednesday morning range from 0.64” to 1.50”.

Totals over the last 7 days range from 1.28” to 2.77”.

Current satellite, radar, and river levels…

Water vapor satellite loop Wednesday afternoon – The low is to our north and will continue to move towards the northeast. It’s still unstable with scattered showers over the mountains. Clouds and showers will decrease this evening as the low moves farther away.
Water vapor satellite loop Wednesday afternoon – The low is to our north and will continue to move towards the northeast. It’s still unstable with scattered showers over the mountains. Clouds and showers will decrease this evening as the low moves farther away.
Radar at 3:12pm Wednesday – The low nearing Grand Junction and will continue moving towards the northeast. Bands of showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low.
Radar at 3:12pm Wednesday – The low is nearing Grand Junction and will continue moving towards the northeast. Bands of showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low.
San Juan River level at 1pm Wednesday was 2,710cfs and 8.65ft. “Minor flood” stage is 10.5ft and 4,864cfs.  Average flow is 88cfs. 2,710cfs broke the previous record for this date of 2,570ft!
San Juan River level at 1pm Wednesday was 2,710cfs and 8.65ft. “Minor flood” stage is 10.5ft and 4,864cfs.  Average flow is 88cfs. 2,710cfs broke the previous record for this date of 2,570ft!

Forecast highlights…

*** The storm is about over! ***

*** Patchy fog and poor visibility is possible tonight. ***

*** A HARD FREEZE is likely Wednesday night and Thursday night. Temps will be below freezing each morning the rest of the week. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry Thursday through Monday. ***

*** Another round of valley rain and mountain snow is possible late next Tuesday into Friday (20-23 Oct). ***

Rest of Wednesday… The low will slide farther to our north. A few scattered snowshowers will fall over the mountains. Another inch of snow is possible in the mountains, but it will be spotty.

Clouds will clear out overnight and patchy fog will develop.

Thursday through Monday… We will be between a ridge to our north and a cutoff low spinning over the Baja Peninsula. Most of this period will be dry and sunny, but there is a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower, late Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

Snow levels will bounce between 9,000ft and 10,500ft. Wolf Creek Pass could get a few fast-moving snowshowers, but accumulations will be minimal.

Tuesday through next Friday… I’m tracking the next storm. There is still a lot of uncertainty.

Snow levels start 11,000ft to 11,500ft and then drop to 9,500ft on Thursday.

*** I don’t trust the models enough to forecast snow amounts. I will make adjustments and get more specific as the data gets better. ***

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be in the *** mid 20s to the low 30s ***.

Thursday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and *** lows will be in the mid 20s to the low 30s. ***

Friday through Monday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to the high 30s.

Tuesday and next Wednesday highs will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Thursday late afternoon and evening, gusts will be around 30mph.

Friday through next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

NBM precip to late next Thursday evening shows 2.10” in the Pagosa area and up to 4” in our mountains. Most models show 1” to 1.5”.
NBM precip to late next Thursday evening shows 2.10” in the Pagosa area and up to 4” in our mountains. Most models show 1” to 1.5”.
NBM snow to late next Thursday evening shows a dusting near Pagosa, 3-6” near Wolf Creek and up to 16” on our high peaks.
NBM snow to late next Thursday evening shows a dusting near Pagosa, 3-6” near Wolf Creek and up to 16” on our high peaks.

21 Oct to 29 Oct… Another storm is taking shape 20-23 Oct. And then some models keep the pattern active while other models show a ridge over the west US and an inactive pattern. I’m cheering for active!

Euro ensemble total precip to 29 Oct shows 2.57” in the Pagosa area.
Euro ensemble total precip to 29 Oct shows 2.57” in the Pagosa area.
Euro ensemble total snow to 29 Oct shows 1-3” in the Pagosa area, 12-18” near Wolf Creek and up to 24” on our higher peaks. Snow levels and snow amounts are all over the place so they can’t be trusted.
Euro ensemble total snow to 29 Oct shows 1-3” in the Pagosa area, 12-18” near Wolf Creek and up to 24” on our higher peaks. Snow levels and snow amounts are all over the place so they can’t be trusted.

The next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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