Pesky pattern with a slight chance for a light shower each afternoon…

It’s special to step out of our front door and see the Milky Way overhead! Love our mesmerizing night skies! – Pic taken 10/1/2026

Sunday – 4 Oct 2026 – 3:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 70, Low: 37, Peak wind: 9mph

Saturday: High: 74, Low: 38, Peak wind: 8mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
67	79 / 1934	31	20 / 1959

Precipitation summary… It’s been dry with lots of sun the last couple of days.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The high will weaken a bit allow that little low over CA to slowly move through the Four Corners area. The jet stream, big yellow arrows, is well to our north. Some moisture from Rachel could get entrained into the system next week. — *Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The high will weaken a bit and allow that little low over CA to slowly move through the Four Corners area.*
*The jet stream, big yellow arrows, is well to our north.*
*Some moisture from Rachel could get entrained into the system next week.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Sunday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Pesky weather pattern with a slight chance for an afternoon shower each day through Saturday. ***

*** Tracking a potential storm 11-13 October. ***

Rest of Sunday through Saturday… The high will remain over the region but it will weaken. A mid-level low will try to slowly move through the Four Corners and cause a slight increase in instability.

A few weak showers are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Next Sunday through next Wednesday… I’m tracking a potential storm. The models are all over the place with timing and precip amounts. Stay tuned for the details.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Monday through Thursday highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Next Sunday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Euro precip to late Saturday evening shows 0.12” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains. This is from spotty showers each afternoon so amounts will vary considerably. — *Euro precip to late Saturday evening shows 0.12” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains.* *This is from spotty showers each afternoon so amounts will vary considerably.*

11 Oct to 19 Oct… A storm is brewing 11-13 Oct. Snow levels are trying to lower a bit while precip amounts are increasing a bit. I like that trend!

*Euro ensemble total precip to 19 Oct shows 1.88” in the Pagosa area. This model expects more precip than the others at this time. All models are trending up.*

*Euro ensemble total snow to 17 Oct shows up to a half inch in the Pagosa area, 2-4” near Wolf Creek and 6-9” on our higher peaks.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 19 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. There is a chance for a few light showers each afternoon. Something is trying to brew 11-13 Oct. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 19 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*There is a chance for a few light showers each afternoon through Saturday. A storm is trying to brew 11-13 Oct. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry.*

The next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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