Drought conditions are rated “moderate” cross Archuleta County. A month ago it was “severe”.
Friday – 2 Oct 2026 – 9:45am
September summary…
The average high for September is 74 and the average low is 37. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 September 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 September 1908. Precip in September averages 2.00″ and the average snowfall is a trace. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of precip and 4″ snow.
At Stevens Field the highest temp was 85 on 9 Sep and the lowest temp was 35 on 21 Sep. There were no new records.
There were 2 days with winds at or over 30mph. The highest wind was 31mph on 13 Sep.
How did we do?
Drought and river levels…
The US drought map on the right shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.
October outlook…
The average high for October is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. Precip in October averages 2.27″ and the average snowfall is 3.2″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ snow.
The precip outlook on the right shows “equal chances” for average precip.
September verification: The Euro expected 2.84″ and the GFS expected 3.10. We got 6.81″ so both models under-forecast precip.
Arleen’s October outlook…
October is a transition month. We continue to tip away from the sun. The winter pattern tries to set up, with cold air masses dipping farther south each week.
October average precipitation of 2.27” is a bit more than September. And in October we see our first snows! Pagosa averages 4” and Wolf Creek averages almost 27”.
The models really struggle with the whip lash between warm late summer days and chilly early winter days. In addition, the eastern Pacific is still very active and there is a possibility of seeing the remnants from a tropical storm. However, all indications are that ridging will set up to the west of us for the first week giving us clear skies and chilly mornings.
During the second and third week, a weak long wave trough sets up to our west. But the storm track is well to the north. We could see a few weak showers moving through but nothing significant.
Unless we see remnants from a tropical storm, we’ll have below average precipitation with above average temperatures. We could see a few flurries of snow at the end of the month in town and just a few inches of snow in the mountains.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
- Shawn
