Lots for sun and pleasant temps for a while…

Area streams are swollen from recent rain, and fall is starting to show its colors in Pagosa Country – Pic taken 10/1/2026

Friday – 2 Oct 2026 – 2:10pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Wednesday: High: 53, Low: 47, Peak wind: 21mph

Thursday: High: 67, Low: 39, Peak wind: 30mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
69	84 / 1934	32	18 / 1950

Precipitation summary… On and off rain fell on Wednesday. Thursday, we had no rain and saw lots of blue sky.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain totals reported Thursday morning ranged from 0.20” to 0.65”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Friday around noon – The high over southern NV will be the main influence on our weather for a while. It’s dry and stable across the Four Corners region. The jet stream, big yellow arrows, is well to our north and looks like it will stay there for a while. Hurricane Rachel won’t impact us. — *Water vapor satellite Friday around noon – The high over southern NV will be the main influence on our weather for a while. It’s dry and stable across the Four Corners region.*
*The jet stream, big yellow arrows, is well to our north and looks like it will stay there for a while. Hurricane Rachel won’t impact us.*

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Slight chance for a shower Sunday and Tuesday afternoons, otherwise it will be mostly sunny and dry with temps near average for a while. ***

Rest of Friday through next Friday… High pressure over the desert southwest will be the main influence on our weather. We will have lots of sun and temps near average.

Sunday and Tuesday are the exceptions as weak troughs will try to sneak through the ridge. There will be slightly more instability, so a few weak showers are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Temps…

Friday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Saturday through Thursday highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Next Friday highs will be in the high 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*WPC precip to next Friday afternoon shows a little rain over mountains on Sunday and Tuesday.*

9 Oct to 17 Oct… My crystal ball is confused. Some models show a storm brewing 11-13 Oct while some show us mostly dry. Right now I’m going with mostly dry.

*Euro ensemble total precip to 17 Oct shows 0.78” in the Pagosa area.*

*Euro ensemble total snow to 17 Oct shows 1-2” near Wolf Creek and 2-4” on our higher peaks.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 17 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s dry through Sunday morning. There could be a few light showers Sunday afternoon. It’s dry again Monday. Tuesday and maybe Wednesday there’s a slight chance for a few light showers. The 9th and 10th are mostly dry. Something is trying to brew 11-13 Oct. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 17 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through Sunday morning. There could be a few light showers Sunday afternoon. It’s dry again Monday. Tuesday and maybe Wednesday there’s a slight chance for a few light showers. The 9^th and 10^th are mostly dry. Something is trying to brew 11-13 Oct. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry.

The next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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