October ’26 Newsletter!

Colorfest, September 18th-20th started each morning with an incredible balloon launch. (Select title of post to see picture)

Thursday – 1 October 2026 – 7:45pm

Included in this newsletter: Big Thank You Waves to Individual Donors & Our Sponsors; Community Outreach News; Calendar of events, CoCoRaHS and Contest Updates…


Personal Donations

Huge waves of thanks to: Dave Duquemin, Dave Stimpson & Kate Treweeke and John Huft! Thank you!!!

What your generous donation goes towards…

Your donations help us pay for our website manager, Do Engelhardt at Fluid Elements Web, the Pagosa Weather website, commercial weather subscriptions, and other business expenses.  Most importantly your donations ensure that we will be able to provide this FREE service for everyone for years to come!

To make a donation, click on this link: How to Donate. You can donate by PayPal, Square with Visa or MasterCard, or DAF Direct.

Pagosa Weather will be part of the Color Gives Campaign this year!

Checks can be made out and mailed to: Pagosa Weather, 56 Talisman Dr Unit 3, PMB 142, Pagosa Springs CO 81147. Thank you so much for your generosity!

Shawn and I have been truly touched by the support our followers have shown for us! THANK YOU!!!


Sponsors

We LOVE our Sponsors!  They just amaze us with their support!

This Month’s featured sponsor: Pagosa Springs Medical Center

The EMS Team responds no matter how bad the weather is!

“Pagosa Springs Medical Center (PSMC) is a leader in rural Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and serves as the sole 911 EMS ambulance provider for Archuleta County and portions of Hinsdale and Mineral Counties 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.”

“PSMC’s EMS team specializes in extended patient care, spanning from the initial 911 response, to the delivery of patients to the emergency department for stabilization and hospital care. PSMC’s EMS provides regional interfacility and medical patient transports to hospitals in Colorado and New Mexico. In addition to emergency response and transport services, PSMC’s EMS staff provide education, training, and other support to the community.”

All our area first responders including the PSMC EMS team, brave the icy and snow packed roads to get to work. In addition, under such conditions, there are more traffic accidents and other emergencies that they need to respond to. We are very thankful for the peace of mind these brave women and men give us.

We are so grateful to the PSMC for the support of our free weather forecasting service. They have been one of our Snowman sponsors for four years now! They use our weather forecast for planning for such emergencies as power outages. Thank you, Dr. Rhonda Webb, and your entire team for your support!

EMS LineUp Color

Pagosa Springs Medical Center Emergency Medical Services team

2026 Sponsors! (Click on the sponsor’s name to follow link to their website.)

Blizzard Level Sponsor: Ski & Bow Rack

Snowman Level Sponsors

Alley House

Pagosa Springs Medical Center

Terry’s Colorado Home Supply & Ace Hardware

Snowball Level Sponsors

Peggy Andrews, Independent Real Estate Broker

Dr. Leo Milner, D.C., Chiropractic Services

Pagosa Mountain Sports

Pagosa Wilderness + Pagosa Rafting Outfitters + A1Taxi

Storm Sponsor: The Springs Resort


Community Outreach!


Tropical Storms

The month of September was a wet month due to deep tropical moisture being advected north all month! We ended up with an average of 6.81″ of precipitation across the county. The observation point 8 miles west/northwest of Pagosa received 8.64″ of rain.

Arboles, the southern area of the county and the western area of the county including the Chimney Rock National Monument were hit pretty hard at the beginning of the month. It was nice to have reports our new CoCoRaHS observer on the western side of the county! Note: We are still looking for an Arboles CoCoRaHS observer! See CoCoRaHS report below.

A lot of the rain was from Tropical storm Odalys and then Hurricane Polo. The San Juan River peaked at 8.47 feet or 2,470 cubic feet per second. That is more than 4 feet lower then last October. We did not reach flood stage this year.

For comparison last year, in October 2025, The San Juan River hit “major flood stage” twice when the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond dropped 3-7″ of rain in the Pagosa area. On October 11th, 2025 at 6pm the river crested at 12.66ft and 8,270cfs and on October 15th at 5:15am it crested at 12.82ft and 8,560cfs.

It was our wettest month on record. See Shawn’s Monthly summary for more details. It will be out on Friday or Saturday when he has all the information available.

SJ River 29 Sep 26 edited
The San Juan River on September 29th at 11:00am at 2,000 cfs across from The Springs Resort.
28 Sep 2026 pm satellite
Sep 28th, 2026. TS Odalys moving northwest. Hurricane Polo moving northwest. The red arrows indicate the movement of the deep tropical moisture being pulled northeast by the baroclinic low over Nevada.
Pacific Hurricane season
The eastern Pacific opened for business at the beginning of June and has been busy all summer primarily due to the warm El Nino Pacific waters.

Swiss Roll Fire

The Swiss Roll Fire, which was first reported on August 20th. Fire crews did not initially engage the Swiss Roll Fire due to extremely high threat to safety from falling dead trees, and lack of access in the case of a medical emergency. Additionally, the fire was not expected to threaten life or property thanks to its remote location and the low likelihood of significant growth.

Fire managers continued to assess the fire daily, and were prepared to implement an indirect containment strategy with predetermined action points if fire growth reached certain locations.

It remained a small controlled fire till September 11th. Then due to dry conditions and high winds, the fire experienced quite a bit of growth over a two day period of time till it grew to 777 acres. A combination of wet weather and direct aerial operations controlled the fire within the specified limits.

The fire is now 93% contained, per the National Interagency Fire Center.

Garland SW fire
Jessica Garland captured this incredible image of the Swiss Roll fire pyrocumulonimbus on September 12th during a dry high wind event.

Res Hill Ruck March

Shawn was up bright and early for the Res Hill Ruck March in remembrance of 911 and sponsored by our local Pagosa Fire Department. He carried a 40 pound pack over 5K with a total elevation gain over 1,000 feet. The event started at 6:45am close to the time when the first aircraft struck the towers.

Thanks to the Pagosa Fire Department for sponsoring the Res Hill Ruck March in remembrance of 911   – pic taken 9/11/2026
Thanks to the Pagosa Fire Department for sponsoring the Res Hill Ruck March in remembrance of 911   – pic taken 9/11/2026

Young Eagles Day AND Vet 4 Vets & Rotary Club Community Pancake Breakfast!

The 5th Annual FREE Community Pancake Breakfast hosted by Vets 4 Vets on Saturday, September 12th, and by Rotary Club of Pagosa Springs on Sunday, September 13th, from 8am-11am both days.

On the same date/location was the Young Eagles Event! Founded in 1992, the Young Eagles program is dedicated to giving youth ages 8–17, an opportunity to go flying in a general aviation airplane. These flights are offered free of charge and are made possible through the generosity of EAA member volunteers.

Shawn and I were there early to brief the aviation weather to all the pilots for the flights.

25 12 Sep 2026 edited
The sun peaks over the mountains on the airfield and the EAA aircraft as we arrive to brief the pilots.
27 12 Sep 2026 edited
Arleen briefs the pilots on current satellite and expected hazards for the day.

image

40th Annual Colorfest!

The 40th Annual Colorfest was magical as the inclement weather cleared for the weekend to allow balloon launches each morning.

ColorFest weekend was September 18th-20th and included hot air balloons, a food & wine festival, live music, food trucks, craft beer, spirit tastings and mountain-town fun.

Arleen & Shawn were up early each morning to brief the 32 balloon pilots. The downtown launch on Saturday morning was a success between early morning fog and late morning thunderstorms. The Sunday morning launch uptown was perfect!

31 19 Sep 2026
Arleen briefing the hot air balloon pilots/crews early Saturday morning at the Springs Resort.
33 19 Sep 2026 edited
The Saturday morning launch downtown was incredible with the sun back lighting the balloons next to the San Juan river and mist from the thermal pools.

Pagosa Weather “Winter Weather Wonder”!

Friday, November 13th, 5:30pm to 8:30pm. Pagosa Lakes Clubhouse 230 Port Avenue.

Pagosa Weather, as the NWS Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors, will put on the 2nd annual Winter Weather Wonder in order to help the community prepare for winter. Everyone is invited to this FREE event!

We will pass out free snow windshield wiper brushes.

The Hors d’oeuvres will be catered by Farrago Events and Chefs Todd and Kellie Stevens.

A selection of winter cookies will be baked by Tracey.

The Pagosa Mountain Rotary Club will be manning a wine and beer bar. All proceeds go towards their community initiatives.

Dustin English with the Upper San Juan Search and Rescue will be the guest speaker. Shawn and I will speak about this winter’s forecast and the influence of the Super El Nino.

Upper San Juan Search and Rescue, Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC), Archuleta County CSU Extension Agent, The Springs Resort and other nonprofit organizations will have information booths focused on preparing for the winter. If you have a winter seasonal non-profit organization and you would like to have a table, contact Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com.

Other Pagosa Weather sponsors may have information booths and pop-up shops. 

We look forward to an evening talking about everything winter and SNOW!

WWW

Pagosa Weather Calendar News

  • Wednesday, October 14th: CoCoRaHS annual snow measurement training.
  • Friday, November 13th! Pagosa Weather Winter Weather Wonder. 5:30-8:30
  • Saturday, Dec 5th, County Be Prepared for an Emergency class. 10am – 12:30pm, CSU Extension exhibit hall. Pagosa Weather will have an info table and will discuss winter forecast.

If any teachers or organizations would like a Pagosa Weather class or presentation, send an email to Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com.


CoCoRaHS Newsletter Updates

Pagosa Weather is the Archuleta County “CoCoRaHS Coordinator” and “Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador”.

CoCoRaHS Annual Winter Snow Measurement Training will be Wednesday, October 14th, 6:00 It will be catered this year by Ana Smith, SoCo Mountain Foods, in appreciation to our volunteer CoCoRaHS team. If you have considered being a CoCoRaHS observer, this might be a great class for you to attend. Email Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com for more information.

HELP! Do you or do you have a friend that lives in one of the four areas highlighted below?

Archuleta County is well represented but we still have BIG data gaps. We really need a volunteer in southern Hinsdale County, Pagosa Junction, Dulce, and Upper Blanco. Sign up by filling out this web page: https://www.cocorahs.org/application.aspx. Or send us a note and we can send you more detailed information.

CoCoRaHS Map Recruit 30 Sep 26
If you live in one of these data sparse areas, Pagosa Weather will provide you with all the equipment that you need. Contact Arleen at pagosaweather@gmail.com

Weather Data Lovers, CoCoRaHS has released CoCoRaHS Data Explorer, or “DEx” for short.  This tool provides countless new ways to visualize and analyze data.  Note: it is highly recommended to use larger screens when viewing the DEx.
Click here to go to the DEx Station Search page for data access to any station in the database. (open to the public)


Pagosa Weather September SUMMARY & October Outlook News

Shawn’s September summary and my October outlook will out tomorrow or Saturday.


Contest Updates

Special Thanks to our sponsor businesses that have stepped forward to sponsor our weather contests. They are a lot of fun!

The Two Feet of Snow contest will be out this month. We have not had two feet at the Representative Observation spot in two years. Will this be the year?


Closed Contest – Monsoon!!! Jenny Yurechko is the winner!

We ended up with 9.61” monsoon total!!!  The average for July was 1.81″. The average for August was only .99″. But September came back and posted an average of 6.81″! That is just over our entire monsoon average for three months!

Jenny Yurechko had a guess of 9.54” and is the Winner!  

Jenny will receive a Springs Resort General Admission Membership for a year! It includes:

  • Enjoy unlimited soaking 7 days a week and exclusive early access from 8–9:00 am in their 25 hot spring soaking pools.
  • Access to 20 pools + 5 VIP adult-only pools
  • Unlimited Soaking – 7 Days/Week + Holidays
  • Daily Locker Included
  • Daily Towel Included

The Springs Resort is also Pagosa Weather’s Storm Sponsor and are there with us through blizzards and significant monsoon storms. We are deeply grateful for their support!

The Springs Thank you Summer

Active Contest – First Inch of Snow Weather Contest!

Forecast the date and time of the first inch of snow that falls and sticks to the ground. The Pagosa Weather Team will determine and verify the 1st inch of snow. The verification snowboard is seven miles northwest of Pagosa. A winner will be declared when this snowboard has an inch of snow. Note: This contest is closed to new guesses.

The person with the closest guess wins a $50 gift certificate from Terry’s Ace Hardware!

Terry’s Ace is one of our Snowman Sponsors. It is a modern-day general store and a member of the largest retailer-owned hardware cooperative in the industry. When Ace talks about the “Most Helpful Hardware” store, Terry’s is a shining example.

We are so thankful to Grace and her entire team at Terry’s Ace Hardware for their support of Pagosa Weather!

Good luck to all!

Ace Logo
DateTime Name – First NameName – Last Name
9/28/20267pmMaryStokes
9/30/20267amEricLewis
10/4/20265pmkevinanderson
10/5/20261amJeanetteGreen
10/6/20267amJeffWitten
10/6/20266amDougOuren
10/8/20263amMarthaBall
10/8/202610pmmikeofferman
10/8/20267amPennyKipley
10/10/20268pmJohnThigpen
10/10/20264amCarolePoulter
10/10/20263amCandaceBell
10/10/20264amAlPfister
10/11/202610amLauraJones
10/12/20269amPhilSlusher
10/12/202611pmMadelineArnold
10/14/20265pmRandyGreen
10/15/20269amRobBarlow
10/15/20268pmLucindaTagliareni
10/15/20269amDaveStimpson
10/15/20262pmRebeccaNelson
10/15/202610pmMollySprowle
10/17/20265amBruceGerman
10/18/20268pmDonnaLewis
10/20/202610pmKristieBixler
10/20/20267pmMichelleJuneau
10/21/20266amJamesBickel
10/21/202611amThomasOConnell
10/22/20268amLisaGamber
10/23/20261:53amJohnBall
10/23/20264amSharayBoynton
10/23/20266amReneeDemianew
10/23/20265pmMarkLivingston
10/23/20267pmChelliePanzera
10/24/20264amDavidVedera
10/25/20267pmTroyRettig
10/25/202611pmJennyHighum
10/26/202610pmKevinMcHorse
10/26/2026NoonBrandonBeagle
10/27/20266amJohnHuft
10/27/20263pmJayChristianson
10/28/20265amCarolBlair
10/28/2026 6pmTravisTroxtell
10/28/20264pmJordanAlmquist
10/29/20267amKarlaRobinson
10/30/20261pmChristineBrody
10/30/202611amDebbieMoore
10/31/20268amBradyTurner
10/31/20269amKrisMay
10/31/20263pmVictoriaHeid
10/31/202611pmAndyByra
10/31/20265amShaneJones
11/1/2026MidnightEmilyCleveland
11/1/20266:00BarbRemien
11/1/20266pmMSTEliciaBates
11/1/202610amLisaVail
11/1/20263amMusettaWollenweber
11/2/20263pmIreneBeck
11/2/20268pmKimOfferman
11/2/2026NoonJennieLeverett
11/3/202611amBarbaraFerrell
11/3/20265pmTamiMendonca
11/3/20265pmJimShepherd
11/3/20267pmEricFisk
11/4/20265amTinaEdwards
11/4/20267amJenniferChristianson
11/4/20263amMikeBates
11/5/20266amVenitaDurrer
11/5/20268pmMitchellBell
11/5/20263pmCheriMaxwell
11/9/202611pmJuliePederson
11/10/20268amKateTreweeke
11/10/20266amnancygreen
11/10/202610amGailYoung
11/10/20264pmMikeBuckingham
11/11/202611amMirickCox
11/11/202611amEdH
11/12/20264amROBERTBENCY
11/12/20267amMarkLangford
11/12/20266amNicoleDye
11/12/202611pmSherryKirkland
11/13/20264::39 pmKatherineYoklavich
11/13/202610pmNikkiHelmberger
11/15/20266amCharlesBeach
11/15/20263amDarrellSmith
11/15/20263amNelsonMills
11/16/20263amCarolynWilson
11/17/20262amPatrickCleveland
11/17/20269pmMeganAnacker
11/18/20268amAlHagopian
11/19/202611amSandraDillon
11/22/20267amSherIGibbs
11/22/20265pmSusanZoerb
11/23/202610pmMattAnacker
11/23/20263amKevinO’Brien
11/23/20269pmDeniseFisk
11/24/20266amTerriDaugherty
11/27/20264amLauriStumph
11/29/20261amEdieBrogan
11/30/2026MidnightBonnieSchilf
11/30/2026NoonVictoriaColeman
12/3/20265pmKimberlyWhite
12/3/20263pmCynthiaJackson
12/8/20263amCharlesRandour
12/10/20265amCarolynEstes
12/12/20266amEricKuhn
12/12/20266amKennyRogers
12/13/20265amJoanScott
12/19/202610pmAbeyNelson

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Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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