It’s almost done!…

The San Juan River peaked early Tuesday morning around 2,500cfs – well below flood stage – Pic taken 9/29/2026 around 11am by Arleen

Wednesday – 30 Sep 2026 – 2:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 56, Low: 46, Peak wind: 7mph

Tuesday: High: 58, Low: 46, Peak wind: 10mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
70	85 / 1957	32	21 / 1985

Precipitation summary… It rained steadily Monday morning into Monday evening and then there were a few scattered showers. Round 1 went as expected. Round 2 has underperformed.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain observations across Archuleta County reported Tuesday morning ranged from 1.38” to 1.93”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain observations across Archuleta County reported Wednesday morning ranged from 0.14” to 0.46”.*

Precip totals for September across Archuleta County range from 5.40” to 8.64” – 270% to 430% of average! The average for the county was 6.81”. That beats the total for the historic flood in October 2025 of 6.06”.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop noon to 1pm Wednesday – The low is spinning east of Albuquerque. Bands of showers are spinning counterclockwise around the low. Over the next 24 hours the low across the southeast corner of CO. — Water vapor satellite loop noon to 1pm Wednesday – The low is spinning east of Albuquerque. Bands of showers are spinning counterclockwise around the low. Over the next 24 hours the low will move across the southeast corner of CO.

*Radar at 1:40pm Wednesday – Bands of showers are spinning around the low near Albuquerque. In our area showers are moving east to west. Archuleta County is circled in black.*

Forecast highlights…

*** There is a FLOOD WATCH in effect through late Wednesday night. ***

*** Through Wednesday evening it will be wet with scattered showers. ***

*** Wednesday night into Thursday morning there will be patchy fog and poor visibility. ***

*** Thursday night the cold spots will flirt with freezing. ***

*** Starting Thursday, it will be mostly sunny and dry with temps near average for a while. ***

Through Wednesday evening… The low will move through central NM and then towards southeast CO.

And what about SNOW? By sunset Wednesday, the snow level will be around 12,000ft.

Our mountains above 12,000ft will get 1-3” of snow. The Wolf Creek ridge and Alberta Peak could get a dusting.

Wednesday night and Thursday… The low will move through the southeast corner of Colorado and then into western Kansas. We will dry out, but rain will continue in southeast Colorado. *** There could be travel problems across northeast NM and southeast CO. ***

*** There will be fog and low visibility in our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ***

Friday through Monday morning… A Rex block will set up between a tropical system spinning south of the Baja Peninsula and a high over the desert southwest. We will have lots of sun and temps near average.

Late Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon… A weak trough will try to move through. Moisture and storm energy will be marginal, so a few spotty showers are possible. I think most of us the county will stay dry.

Tuesday evening and Wednesday… The ridge will rebound. We’ll have lots of sun and temps near average.

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.

Thursday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s. *** The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps. ***

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Next Wednesday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

NWS NDFD precip from noon Wednesday to 6pm Thursday evening shows 0.24” in the Pagosa. Note the 1.50” to 2.00” bullseye over southeast CO. — *NWS NDFD precip from noon Wednesday to 6pm Thursday evening shows 0.24” in the Pagosa area.*
*Note the 1.50” to 2.00” bullseye over southeast CO.*

*Euro precip Friday through Tuesday shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains.* *This is expected late Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. My expectations are low.*

7 Oct to 15 Oct… A Rex block will likely keep us mostly dry and mild during this period.

*Euro ensemble total precip to 15 Oct shows 0.73” in the Pagosa area.*

*Euro ensemble total snow to 15 Oct shows 1-2” near Wolf Creek and 2-4” on our higher peaks.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 15 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s wet into Wednesday evening. I don’t see any organized storms for the rest of the period. There are a couple of chances for scattered light showers, but my expectations are low. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 15 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s wet into Wednesday evening. I don’t see any organized storms for the rest of the period. There are a couple of chances for scattered light showers, but my expectations are low.*

The next post will be on Friday. We are also working on the September summary/October outlook and our September newsletter.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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