There is a FLOOD WATCH in effect through Tuesday evening. Forecast models expect another 2” to 2.5” of rain in the Pagosa area and up to 4” in our mountains. Note the high amounts across northern NM and southeast CO. There will be flooding and travel problems across much of the region.
Monday – 28 Sep 2026 – 3:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Saturday: High: 70, Low: 38, Peak wind: 9mph, Afternoon humidity: 35-40%
Sunday: High: 71, Low: 43, Peak wind: 17mph, Afternoon humidity: 26-31%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 70 | 83 / 1957 | 33 | 20 / 1908 |
Precipitation summary… It was dry through most of the weekend, and then light rain began to fall on parts of the county around sunrise on Monday.
Current satellite and radar…
Archuleta County is circled in black.
Forecast highlights…
*** There is a FLOOD WATCH in effect through Tuesday evening. This could be extended into Wednesday afternoon. ***
*** Through Wednesday evening will be wet as the remnants of hurricane Polo visits. There will be periods of moderate to heavy rain. ***
*** Then it looks like it will be mostly sunny and dry for a while. ***
Rest of Monday into Wednesday evening… A low currently over southern NV will move through central AZ and NM, and then into southeast CO. At the same time, remnants of hurricane Polo will get wrapped into the low and give us a good soaking.
Timing… Steady rain, occasionally heavy, will fall into early Tuesday morning. There will be a lull with hit and miss showers sunrise Tuesday into early Tuesday afternoon, and then precip will ramp up again late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. Showers will taper off Wednesday evening.
I’m not a hydrologist, but I think the San Juan and Piedra rivers will crest in the 2,400cfs to 2,800cfs range sometime on Tuesday. This is below “minor flood” stage. However, flood prone areas will have problems into Wednesday evening. There’s also a good chance for rockslides and debris on roads.
And what about SNOW? The snow level will be 12,500ft to 13,000ft for much of this event. By sunrise Wednesday, it will be around 12,000ft.
Our mountains above 12,000ft will get 1-3” of snow. The Wolf Creek ridge and Alberta could get a dusting.
Wednesday night and Thursday… The low will slowly move through southeast Colorado. We will dry out, but southeast Colorado could get 2.5” to 3.5” of rain. This will cause areas of flooding and sketchy travel conditions.
*** If you plan to drive through northeast NM or southeast CO, keep an eye on the weather and travel conditions. ***
*** There will be patchy fog and low visibility in our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ***
Friday through next Monday… A Rex block will set up between a tropical system spinning south of Cabo and a high over the desert southwest. We will have lots of sun and temps near average.
Temps…
Monday night lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 50s. Tuesday night lows will be in the mid 40s to near 50. Wednesday night lows will be in mid 30s to the low 40s.
Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s. *** The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps. ***
Saturday, Sunday, and next Monday highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Winds…
Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***
5 Oct to 13 Oct… A Rex block will likely keep us mostly dry and mild during this period.
It’s wet into Wednesday evening and then it’s not wet the rest of the period.
The next post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
