Our mountain peaks above 12,900ft got a little snow! This is the Rio Grande Pyramid, 13,800ft, northwest of Pagosa Springs. – pics taken 9/26/2026
Saturday – 26 Sep 2026 – 3:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Thursday: High: 59, Low: 48, Peak wind: 9mph, Afternoon humidity: 67-72%
Friday: High: 64, Low: 44, Peak wind: 18mph, Afternoon humidity: 55-60%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 70 | 81 / 1956 | 33 | 17 / 1930 |
Precipitation summary… Soaking rains hit Archuleta County the last few days. We are WAY above average for the month. Details are below.
There are 3 locations in Archuleta County with over 6” – over 300% of average. These are the highest amounts in the entire state!
Current satellite and radar…
There is nothing on our radar in our area as I type at 2:20pm.
Forecast highlights…
*** Rest of Saturday through most of Sunday will be mostly dry with temps near average. ***
*** Late Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon will be wet as the remnants of hurricane Polo visits. Potential for heavy rain and minor flooding Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Then it looks like it will be mostly dry for a while. ***
Rest of Saturday and Sunday… Flow is more westerly and has pushed most of the moisture to our east. Instability is marginal so there is a chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Most of the county will be dry with temps near average.
Late Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon… This is a tricky period. A low is expected to move through southern CA and then through AZ and NM. At the same time, remnants of hurricane Polo are expected to move through northern Mexico and then through southeast NM. Some moisture from Polo will get wrapped into the low and give us a good soaking.
Scattered showers will begin late Sunday night and ramp up around sunrise Monday. *** The heaviest rain and minor flooding are possible Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. *** Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be more hit and miss.
At this time, I do not expect the San Juan or Piedra rivers to approach flood stage. However there is potential for minor flooding in low-lying areas and along small streams.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with this period. If the low or the remnants of Polo track differently, it will result in a considerable change to the forecast.
And what about SNOW? The snow level will be 12,500ft to 13,000ft for much of this event. By sunrise Wednesday, it will be around 12,000ft.
Right now I think our mountains above 12,000ft will get 1-3” of snow.
I’ll adjust the details as the data gets better and more reliable.
Wednesday night and Thursday… I’m not sure about this period. The low could stall over southeast Colorado and keep our weather unsettled with scattered storms or it could stall a little farther east and we’d dry out. Right now I’m going with the “drying out” scenario.
Friday and next Saturday… A ridge will build over the region. We will have lots of sun and temps near average.
Temps…
Saturday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s.
Sunday, highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and lows will be in the mid 40s to near 50.
Wednesday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.
Thursday, Friday, and next Saturday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s. The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps.
Winds…
Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***
I struggled with which model to use as an example. The Euro thinks the heaviest precip will stay to our east and south.
Other forecast models precip totals for this period: NBM: 1.97”, WPC: 1.81”, GFS: 1.31”, Canadian: 2.37”, Euro AI: 2.03”, GFS AI: 1.53”, Euro ensemble: 2.20”, GFS ensemble: 1.42”, Canadian ensemble: 1.36”, Euro AI ensemble: 1.80”, GFS AI ensemble: 1.32”.
Range 1.30” to 2.37”. Average: 1.70”.
30 Sep to 11 Oct… There’s a chance for a weak trough or two to skirt to our north, but I think a ridge or a Rex block is more likely to keep us mostly dry during this period.
It’s dry through most of the weekend and then scattered showers are possible late Sunday night. Shower activity ramps up Monday morning into Tuesday evening and then showers become more hit and miss Wednesday. A few showers could linger into Thursday and then it’s less active and drying out for the rest of the period.
The next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
