Love these damp chilly mornings! – pics taken 9/23/2026
Thursday – 24 Sep 2026 – 7:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Tuesday: High: 70, Low: 42, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 40-45%
Wednesday: High: 57, Low: 49, Peak wind: 8mph, Afternoon humidity: 77-82%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 71 | 80 / 1998 | 33 | 20 / 1945 |
Precipitation summary… Round 1 Tuesday and Tuesday night overproduced. Round 2 Wednesday and most of Thursday has underproduced. That’s alright. Most of the county got a good soaking from a long, steady, mostly light rain.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** The Swiss Roll Fire, burning about 14 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs, is 777 acres and 36% contained. The fire has received quite a bit of rain recently. ***
*** Thursday night through Friday afternoon there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
*** Saturday through most of Sunday will be mostly dry with temps near average. ***
*** Late Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon there will be another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Watching potential for heavy rain Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon. ***
*** Then it looks like it will be mostly dry for a while. ***
Rest of Thursday through Friday… A trough will move through our area Friday around noon. There is still a bunch of moisture, a little instability, and orographic lift that will continue to kick up periods of rain.
The trough will add more instability late Friday morning into Friday afternoon and kick up stronger showers and a few thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.
Saturday and Sunday… Flow will turn more westerly and push most of the moisture to our east. We will be dry with temps near average.
Fog is possible Saturday morning in low-lying areas.
Late Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon… This is a tricky period. A low is expected to move through southern CA and then through AZ and NM. At the same time, remnants of hurricane Polo are expected to move through northern Mexico and maybe into southeast NM.
Some moisture from Polo could get wrapped into the low and give us a good soaking. The heaviest rain is possible Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
At this time, I do not expect the San Juan or Piedra rivers to get anywhere near flood stage. However there is potential for minor flooding in low-lying areas and along small streams.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with this period. If the low or the remnants of Polo track differently, it will result in a considerable change to my forecast.
And what about SNOW? That’s tricky too. The airmass associated with the low will be slightly cooler with lower snow levels. The airmass associated with the remnants of Polo is subtropical with warmer temps and higher snow levels.
By early Tuesday morning, the snow level will be around 11,500ft and then by early Wednesday it could drop to 10,500ft. But by early Wednesday morning, precip will be tapering off.
Right now I think our mountains above 11,000ft will get 1-3” of snow.
I’ll adjust the details as the data gets better and more reliable.
Temps…
Thursday night lows will be in the low 40s to the low 50s.
Friday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Saturday and Sunday, highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Sunday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.
Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to the low 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.
Wednesday and next Thursday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be near freezing to the low 40s.
Winds…
Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***
28 Sep to 9 Oct… There’s a chance for a weak trough to skirt to our north, but I think a ridge or a Rex block is more likely to keep us dry during this period.
Most of this precip is during the first half of this period.
It’s wet into Friday night. It’s dry through most of the weekend and then scattered showers are possible late Sunday night. Shower activity ramps up Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening and then showers become more hit and miss Wednesday. It’s less active and drying out for the rest of the period.
The next post will be on Saturday. Keep an eye on Facebook for quick updates.
– Shawn
