POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY…

Flooded road

Areas from Trujillo to Arboles had 2″+ of rain yesterday resulting in mud slides and low level flooding. Thanks to CoCoRaHS observer Mike Dingman for sending us this photo yesterday.

Tuesday – 15 Sep 2026 – 9am

Much of Archuleta County got 0.50″ to 1.00″ rain in the last 24 hours. The southwest part of the county got hammered with 1.50″ to 2.50″.

More is on the way!

Tuesday wont be as active with just a few spotty storms. But those storms will be potent with isolated areas of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Tuesday night into Friday morning is the main event. 1.50″ to 2.50″ is possible. It will be a long, steady rain with embedded strong storms causing brief periods of very heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, poor visibility, and lightning.

Flash flooding, and flooding in low-lying areas and along smaller streams is possible. I do not expect the San Juan or Piedra rivers to get anywhere near flood stage. Remember: TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!

Friday wont be as active with just a few spotty storms. But those storms will be potent with isolated areas of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

The weekend will be drier, but there is still a chance for a few spotty afternoon and evening storms.

– Shawn

Pic A
This graphic from the ABQ NWS shows us under a “slight risk” for excessive rainfall and flooding. For Wednesday, it says “possible upgrade to moderate”. *** I have no problem upgrading us to “moderate risk” for both Wednesday and Thursday. ***

Pic B
NWS potential rainfall Tuesday morning to Friday morning shows Pagosa Springs getting 2.3″ with more possible along the CO/NM border.

Pic C
The NWS estimated rainfall for the last 24 hours (Monday AM to Tuesday AM) shows that much of Archuleta County got a half inch or more of rain. The southwest part of the county got hammered with 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain. The star is over Pagosa Springs and Archuleta County is circled.

Pic D
This morning’s 24-hour CoCoRaHS reports in Archuleta County range from 0.28″ to 1.36″. Most reports are over a half inch. Mike’s report on Trujillo road/lower San Juan was 1.17″.

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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