More active next week…

Evening glow on Pagosa Peak – pic taken 9/7/2026

Wednesday – 9 Sep 2026 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Monday: High: 80, Low: 56, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 27-32%

Tuesday: High: 83, Low: 54, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 20-25%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
77	87 / 1945	39	27 / 1912

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Archuleta County is outlined in purple. Moisture is outlined in green, and instability is outlined in red. Moisture and instability have been pushed to our south. — Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – Archuleta County is outlined in light blue. Moisture is outlined in green, and instability is outlined in red. Moisture and instability have been pushed to our south.

There is nothing on radar in our area Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** It continues to be dry and warm with breezy afternoons. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Mostly dry and warm with breezy afternoons through Saturday. ***

*** Scattered storms next week. It’s a coin toss whether you get rain or not each day. ***

Rest of Wednesday and Thursday are dry and stable.

Friday and Saturday moisture and instability will gradually increase. There’s a slight chance for an isolated storm, mostly over the mountains.

Sunday through next week… A decent monsoon pattern will try to set up. Of course, I’ve been saying that all summer. Hopefully I’ll be right this time!

It’s a coin toss whether you’ll get rain on your head or not each day.

Temps…

Wednesday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Thursday through Saturday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Monday, Tuesday, and next Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Winds…

Wednesday and Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Friday through Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Tuesday and next Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

NBM precip next Wednesday evening (16 Sep) shows 0.56” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.80” in our mountains. This is expected Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. It’s all from convective spotty storms, so amounts will vary.

16 Sep to 24 Sep… The forecast models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them. I see potential for the pattern to stay active, but there is nothing significant on the horizon.

*Euro ensemble precip to 24 Sep shows 2.20” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected during the second half of the period. Precip amounts over the last few days have trended up.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s dry through Thursday and then there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower Friday and Saturday. Starting Sunday afternoon and going through the rest of the period, it looks active. It looks best late next week. Take it all with a grain of salt because the models have stunk this summer! — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s dry through Thursday and then there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower Friday and Saturday. Starting Sunday afternoon and going through the rest of the period, it looks active. Take it all with a grain of salt because the models have stunk this summer!

The next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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