Snowpack is well below average for the whole Four Corners region
Friday – 2 Jan 2026 – 8:30am
December summary…
The average high for December is 39 and the average low is 5. The record high of 70 occurred on 3 Dec 1906. The record low of -35 occurred on 19 Dec 1999. Precip in Dec averages 1.89″ and the average snowfall is 21.2″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.42″ of precip and 78.7″ of snow.
At Stevens Field the highest temp was 58 on 22 and 23 Dec and the lowest temp was 8 on 7 Dec. There were no days with winds at or over 30mph. * We set 4 new daily record highs. *
How did we do?
Even a historic October wasn’t enough to get us to average.
Snowpack and Drought…
The Upper San Juan snotel is at 49% of the seasonal median and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 48%
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the US is experiencing drought conditions.
January outlook…
The average high for January is 37 and the average low is 2. The record high of 59 occurred on 1 Jan 1981. The record low of -42 occurred on 13 Jan 1963. Precip in Jan averages 2.08″ and the average snowfall is 26.4″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.67″ of precip and 76.1″ of snow.
The precip outlook on the right shows “equal chances” for average precip.
Last month both models over-forecast precip, but the Euro did a little better than the GFS.
And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…
The models didn’t do well last month. The ridge never really broke down keeping precipitation at bay and temperatures up.
For January the CPC, the GFS, and the Euro are forecasting average precipitation. But I am skeptical. I think we have to forecast persistence that is still below average precipitation.
The arctic oscillation is still negative and disrupted, helping to spill cold air into the Rockies the second to the third week in January. The MJO is weak at this time and not enhancing any weather. The waters in the central Pacific are not warming yet, so a weak La Nina ENSO pattern persists.
I am forecasting below average precipitation and snow, though it should be better than December. And if the Arctic oscillation disruption persists, we will have average to below average temperatures.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
- Shawn
