FLOOD WATCH Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon
Wednesday – 8 Oct 2025 – 3:45pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 67, Low: 30, Minimum relative humidity: 12%, Peak Wind: 23mph
Tuesday: High: 69, Low: 31, Minimum relative humidity: 12%, Peak Wind: 17mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 85 / 1910 | 28 | 12 / 1992 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last two days.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Wednesday night through Thursday evening there will be spotty showers and thunderstorms. ***
*** Thursday night through Sunday morning Priscilla will visit. Expect lots of clouds, occasional heavy rain showers, and a few thunderstorms. ***
*** FLOOD WATCH Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. ***
*** More rain Monday and Tuesday. ***
Forecast details…
Wednesday night through Thursday evening… The upper-level ridge will be just to our east. We’ll have marginal stability and marginal moisture. There will be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday night through Sunday morning… Priscilla will visit.
Priscilla’s remnants will get entrained into the southwest flow ahead of a trough along the West Coast. The trough is expected to move through our area on Sunday.
Thursday night into Saturday evening precipitable water, a measure of the potential amount of water vapor available for precip, is 250% to 300% of average. This could result in significant rainfall in our area. The forecast rainfall totals are in the map below.
Thursday night through Sunday morning will be more active with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Storms will produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, lightning, and gusty winds. *** The heaviest rain will fall Friday night and Saturday. ***
Snow… A subtropical feed means relatively warm air and mostly rain. Snow levels are around 12,600ft Wednesday afternoon, will jump to 14,000ft by Friday afternoon, and then drop back to around 12,000ft by sunrise on Sunday. Temps will hover around freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate.
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning… We’ll be between systems with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a few spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.
Monday afternoon into next Wednesday morning and possibly into next Friday… A slow-moving low-pressure system will wobble to our west and push rounds of storm energy and moisture through our area.
Right now the second half of Monday and Tuesday look pretty wet and then on and off scattered showers could persist through next Friday. Confidence is shaky on the details. Stay tuned.
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the high 30s to mid-40s.
Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.
Friday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid to high 40s.
Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s. Saturday night lows will be near 40 to the mid-40s. Sunday night lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 30s to high 40s.
Winds…
Tuesday through Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Saturday through Tuesday afternoons gusts will be 20-25mph.
As always, stronger isolated gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
The 8-14 day period… The models continue to flip-flop wildly for the 8-14 day period. One model run will show multiple low-pressure systems impacting us and then the next model run shows them missing us.
The good news is that the jet stream has slipped south and is active. It looks like the first half of October will be wet.
The next post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
