Pagosa Weather JULY SUMMARY & August Outlook

Much of Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions and our San Juan Mountains have “extreme drought” conditions.

Much of Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions and our San Juan Mountains have “extreme drought” conditions.

Saturday – 2 Aug 2025 – 6pm

July Summary…

The average high for Jul is 83 and the average low is 44. The record high of 99 occurred on 7 Jul 1989. The record low of 24 occurred on 5 Jul 1912. Jul precip averages 2.01″ and average snowfall is zero. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.61″ of precip and zero snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp was 91 on 9 Jul and the lowest temp was 41 on 5 Jul. There were 9 days with winds at or over 30mph. The strongest wind was 37mph on 10 Jul.

How did we do?

July mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were near average to 3 degrees above average.
July mean temperature anomalies across much of Archuleta County were near average to 3 degrees above average.
July mean precip anomalies were 70-100% of average for the eastern part of Archuleta County and much lower for the western part of the county.
July mean precip anomalies were 70-100% of average for the eastern part of Archuleta County and much lower for the western part of the county.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.45″ to 2.37″. 5 out of 23 locations were near or above the average of 2.01″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.45″ to 2.37″. 5 out of 23 locations were near or above the average of 2.01″.
Total precip so far for 2025 is 7.49″ – 65% of the average of 11.45″ for this point of the year
Total precip so far for 2025 is 7.49″ – 65% of the average of 11.45″ for this point of the year

Drought and River Levels…

Much of Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions and our San Juan Mountains have “extreme drought” conditions. The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the western US is experiencing drought conditions.
Much of Archuleta County has “severe drought” conditions and our San Juan Mountains have “extreme drought” conditions.
The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the western US is experiencing drought conditions.
The entire month had below the median flow. Even the two surges from Monsoon storms on 4 and 23 July stayed below the median.
The entire month had below the median flow. Even the two surges from Monsoon storms on 4 and 23 July stayed below the median.

August Outlook…

The average high for Aug is 80 and the average low is 45. The record high of 97 occurred on 5 Aug 1940. The record low of 28 occurred on 30 Aug 1978. Aug precip averages 2.69″ and average snowfall is zero. August is our wettest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.32″ of precip and zero snow.

The CPC temp outlook for Jul on the left shows a 60-70% chance for above average temps. The precip outlook on the right shows a 40-50% chance for below average average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for Aug on the left shows a 60-70% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right shows a 40-50% chance for below average average precip.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 2.00″ of precip for Aug and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.62″ – The Euro expects less than the average of 2.69" and the GFS expects considerably more than average.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 2.00″ of precip for Aug and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.62″.
The Euro expects less than the average of 2.69″ and the GFS expects considerably more than average.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

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The precipitation outlook for August is not looking good. The polar front jet, which should weaken and move to Canada, has been active all summer. It is continuing to knock down our subtropical ridge. A strong ridge is key to a good monsoon by pulling moisture around clockwise from the Gulf into southwest Colorado. In addition, the ridge keeps shifting to our west which gives us northwest flow rather than southwest flow. The southwest flow is key to a good monsoon push into our area. August precipitation will be less than average. The only caveat is if a subtropical system forms and the deep tropical moisture advects into our area.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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