The final sunset in 2024 was a good one! – pic taken 12/31/2024
Wednesday – 1 Jan 2025 – 4:15pm
Happy New Year!
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 37 and on Wednesday it was 34. The low this morning was 9. The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits.
Peak wind at Stevens Field Tuesday afternoon was 21mph and on Tuesday afternoon it was 17mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 35 | 59 / 1981 | 0 | -20 / 1991 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area.
Forecast highlights…
*** A weak trough will move through on Saturday and then another one will move through on Tuesday. ***
Rest of Wednesday through Friday… A ridge is in control. We’ll see lots of sun and a warming trend.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 10mph.
Temps… Wednesday night lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Thursday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Saturday through Tuesday… This will be an unsettled period. A trough will move through Saturday and then another will move through on Tuesday. Like the last few storm cycles, the central and northern mountains will be favored while we just get a few scraps.
The best chance for a few snowflakes is Saturday afternoon and then Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Between these periods, an occasional snowflake or two is possible in the mountains.
Snow amounts…
Mountains: A few scattered snowflakes to 3”
Pagosa area: zero to a half inch
Winds… Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons gusts will be around 15mph.
Temps… Saturday highs will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.
The central and northern mountains are favored again with 1-2ft of snow possible.
Will the “polar vortex/arctic outbreak” impact us?
Short answer – no.
Long answer – the cold dense air won’t make it through the mountains. The cold air must move from the east towards the west across two mountain ranges to get to Pagosa.
Weather geek time…
This is easy to track. Initially there is a considerable temp difference between Walsenburg and Alamosa. Strong easterly flow on Le Veta Pass indicates cold air funneling west into the San Luis Valley. The cold air moves into Alamosa when the winds switch to easterly.
Then I watch for easterly winds on Wolf Creek Pass and finally easterly winds in the Pagosa area. This weather pattern is pretty rare in our area.
That cold air will not move west into the Pagosa area.
The 8-15 day period… The pattern is “stuck” with a ridge over the western US and a trough over the east. I don’t see anything to get excited about.
In the upper left the Euro ensemble shows 0.02”.
In the upper right the Euro AI shows 0.43”.
In the bottom left the GFS ensemble shows 0.25”.
In the bottom right the Canadian ensemble shows 0.26”.
Notes: The models agree that upper-level flow will be mostly out the west and northwest. This does not favor us.
My next forecast post will be on Friday. Also, keep an eye out for the December Summary/January Outlook and the December newsletter.
– Shawn
