A lot of snow chances this week, but not a lot of snow this week…

Snow

Light snow is falling at our place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake this morning…”light snow” will be the featured phrase of the week!

Sunday 1-21-2024. 10am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 46 degrees and the low this morning was 26 degrees. Winds gusted to only 5mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 38% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Snow totals were generally around an inch overnight. Wolf Creek Ski area reported 2 inches of snow overnight.

Screenshot 2024 01 21 092044
COCORAHS 24hr snow reports ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 inches.
Precip
COCORAHS 24hr melted snow totals ranged from 0.07 to 0.13.

Pagosa Springs historical data for January 21st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3855/ 19443-26/ 1955

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

A strange week ahead with mostly cloudy skies and chances for snow showers almost every day, but very little accumulation in the valley. The best snow totals (and not much) will be today and Monday, but don’t look for much more than an inch in the valley and 2-4 inches in the mountains. A series of waves and troughs will drift through our area, but as of this post, look for possibly an additional 1-2 inches of snow through Friday.

Screenshot 2024 01 21 094900
A series of troughs and waves will move through our area this week, but not produce much snow for us. The latest mid-level water vapor imagery shows a trough over norther Baja and southern California moving east this morning.
3 days
The latest NWS model is predicting 1 inch of snow over the next 3 days.
NBM Fri
The latest NBM model is predicting 2.5 inches of snow will fall between today and Friday.
GFS 2
The latest GFS model is predicting 3.8 inches of snow will fall between today and Friday. This is the most optimistic model for snow this week!

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Cloudy with a chance for light snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30’s. An additional inch of snow is possible and there is a chance for a snow-rain mix for those of you living below 7400 feet this afternoon. Winds South 5-10mph. The mountains could see 2-4 inches of snow today.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for some snow showers, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds South 5-10mph. Snow totals 1/4 to 1/2 inch in the valley and 1-2 inches in the mountains.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers and snow-rain mix, mainly after 11am. Lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds SW 5-10mph. Very little to any accumulation in the valley and 0-1 inch for the mountains.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few snow showers, mainly between 11am and 4pm. Lows in the 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds SW 5-10mph. Very little to any accumulation in the valley and 0-1 inch for the mountains.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds SW 5-10mph. 0-1 inch of snow in the valley and 1-2 inches for the mountains.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds SW 5-10mph. 0-1 inch of snow in the valley and 1-2 inches for the mountains.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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