Another fantastic Pagosa Country sunset last night! – pic taken 1/10/2024
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Thursday – 11 Jan 2024 – 12:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 27. The low this morning was 18.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 37 | 59 / 1956 | 3 | -22 / 1962 |
Precipitation summary… It started to snow in the Pagosa area around 2am last night. It’s been mostly light snow with occasional bursts of heavier snow.
It started snowing heavily up at Wolf Creek around 9pm last night. They reported 16” of new snow this morning – roughly 2” an hour!
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
*** A Special Avalanche Advisory is in effect for the mountains of Colorado. New snow and winds through the holiday weekend will increase avalanche danger statewide. The most dangerous avalanche conditions will develop Saturday afternoon into Sunday. ***
*** The Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains will expire at 5pm today. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
*** Road conditions are sketchy across the region, including the Farmington area. ***
*** Another round of snow is likely Saturday night and Sunday. ***
Through Thursday evening… The trough will move through this afternoon. However, there won’t be much left of it. Accumulating snow will be about done by the time I send this but hit and miss snowshowers could persist into the afternoon.
Additional snow amounts:
Valley: up to 1”
Mountains: 2-4”
Winds… This evening windy spots will see up to 20mph out of the north. This will blow our new snow around and cause wind chills down to -15.
Temps… Thursday highs will be in the low to high 20s. Lows in most areas Thursday night will be 0 to -15. The cold spots will dip into the negative -20s.
Thursday night to Friday night… We’ll get a brief break between storms. We’ll see periods of clouds, especially Thursday evening and the second half of Friday. A few spotty snowshowers are possible over the mountains. Lucky spots in the mountains could get up to 2”.
Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Highs Friday will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Clouds Friday night should prevent us from getting frigid. Lows will be -5 to +5.
Saturday into Monday morning… The forecast models are beginning to agree that the weekend storm will be like the one moving through now.
This storm will be moving through the region from the northwest. The northern and central mountains will be favored. We’ll just get scraps.
The best storm energy and moisture will be Saturday night and Sunday morning. Unfortunately upper-level flow will be mostly from the west instead of our more favorable southwest flow. Unless this system dives a little farther south, it has more potential to be a dud than a decent storm for us.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 3-6”
Mountains: 6-12”
Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low teens to low 20s and lows Sunday night will be in the low single digits to low teens.
Now it’s time for a little math. This storm will be a little warmer, so I expect a snow ratio around 12:1 in the lower elevations and 16:1 in the mountains. That results in snow totals of 4.8” for Pagosa, 5” for Chama, 4.7” Bayfield, and around 9.6” in our mountains. These might be a little on the high side, but they are in my expected range at this time.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
