More snow Wednesday night and Thursday…

Snow on the Grinch before and after – pics taken 3 and 8 Jan 2024

Snow on the Grinch before and after – pics taken 3 and 8 Jan 2024

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Monday – 8 Jan 2024 – 2:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 28. The low this morning was -1. The cold spots were the upper Piedra bridge at -11 and -8 on Saddle Circle near Hatcher Lake.  Most areas were in the low to high positive single digits.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph. In O’Neal Park we had a few gusts to 15mph that blew the snow around a bit.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3757 / 1956-2-30 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Impressive storm!  We got a bunch of reports and pictures – thanks!

Wolf Creek reported 21” in the last 24 hours and 29” for the storm total.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range 5.5” to 16.5”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range 5.5” to 16.5”.

CoCoRaHS 2-day storm reports range from 6.8” to 20.5”. Most areas were in the 10” to 14”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day storm reports range from 6.8” to 20.5”. Most areas were in the 10” to 14” range.

CoCoRaHS 2-day liquid equivalent reports range from 0.34” to 1.18”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day liquid equivalent reports range from 0.34” to 1.18”.

CoCoRaHS snow depth reports range from 8” to 32”. Why the big difference?  It’s mostly due to elevation. The two highest snow depth reports are near 8,000ft elevation.
CoCoRaHS snow depth reports range from 8” to 32”.
Why the big difference?  It’s mostly due to elevation. The two highest snow depth reports are near 8,000ft elevation.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low has moved to our east and will continue to move east and make things interesting for the midwest and the east coast. The jet stream, yellow arrows, is flowing into the Four Corners region out of the northwest. The ridge along the west coast will keep us dry into Wednesday.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low has moved to our east and will continue to move east and make things interesting for the midwest and the east coast. The jet stream, yellow arrows, is flowing into the Four Corners region out of the northwest. The ridge along the west coast will keep us dry into Wednesday.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Avalanche danger is rated “considerable”. ***

*** More snow Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon. ***

Monday through Wednesday morning… Transient ridging will give us a break so we can dig ourselves out. We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional patches of clouds. Temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below average.

Winds… Monday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range. *** The windy spots could see some drifting snow Monday afternoon. *** Tuesday afternoon wind will peak around 10mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Lows will be 0 to -10.

Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening… The next system will move through. It won’t be organized and will lack moisture so snow amounts will be low.

Timing… Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains Wednesday afternoon and over the valley in the evening.  The best chance for snow is Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Snowshowers will taper off in the valley Thursday afternoon but will linger over the mountains into Thursday evening.

Snow amounts:

Valley: 2-5”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Wednesday peaks will be 15-20mph. *** Watch for drifting snow Wednesday afternoon. *** Thursday peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-20s to around 30 and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.  Thursday highs will be in the low to high 20s and lows Thursday night will be 0 to -15.

NBM snowfall to Thursday at 5pm has 3.5” for Pagosa, 4.8” for Chama, 1.5” for Bayfield, 6.3” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 8” in the south San Juans. This looks reasonable to me.
NBM snowfall to Thursday at 5pm has 3.5” for Pagosa, 4.8” for Chama, 1.5” for Bayfield, 6.3” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 8” in the south San Juans. This looks reasonable to me.

Thursday night to Friday night… We’ll get a brief break between storms.  Expect quite a few clouds and scattered snowshowers, mostly over the mountains.  Lucky spots in the valley could get an inch of new snow and 1-3” is possible in the mountains.

Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the high teens to mid-20s, and lows Friday night will be -5 to +5.

Saturday into Monday morning… The next storm is trying to get its act together.  As of today, it looks like the best storm energy and moisture will miss us to the north and we’ll get scraps, but forecast confidence is low. I’ll tackle this one in Tuesday’s post.

Euro 2-day snowfall from Saturday morning to Monday shows around 6” for Pagosa and Wolf Creek Pass. Unfortunately I think that this is a bit optimistic. This storm will track from the northwest towards the southeast through Colorado which will favor the northern and central mountains. We’ll just get scraps.
Euro 2-day snowfall from Saturday morning to Monday shows around 6” for Pagosa and Wolf Creek Pass. Unfortunately I think that this is a bit optimistic. This storm will track through Colorado from the northwest towards the southeast which will favor the northern and central mountains. We’ll just get scraps.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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