Love this beautiful snow! – pic taken 1/7/2024
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Sunday – 7 Jan 2024 – 2:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 28. The low this morning was 18.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 34 | 55 / 1958 | -2 | -35 / 1949 |
Precipitation summary… It started snowing over most of the Pagosa area around 2am and has been falling steadily since. Temps have been cold, high teens to mid-20s in the valley, and 5 along the Wolf Creek ridge. These are ideal temps for dry, powdery snow that accumulates quickly!
Wolf Creek reported 8” of new snow this morning.
So far, the snow lottery winner is Arleen just north of Turkey Springs.
As of 1:00pm Arleen has measured 13”!
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
*** Moderate to heavy snow will continue into the evening. ***
*** Weather Warnings for heavy snow are valid until 5am Monday. ***
*** Avalanche danger is rated “considerable”. ***
*** More snow Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon. ***
Rest of today … Steady snow will continue to fall into the late afternoon and then get more showery this evening as the low tracks nearly over our heads around midnight. Scattered snowshowers will gradually decrease after 11pm.
Additional snowfall…
Valley: 3-6”
Mountains: 8-12”
Winds… I’m very happy that winds haven’t picked up like I expected. There’s still a chance for 20-25mph winds for a 2-3 hour period this afternoon. Winds up at Wolf Creek will continue to gust up to 35mph resulting in wind chills down to -15.
Temps… Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid-20s. Lows tonight are a tricky forecast and dependent on cloud-cover. I think clouds will stick around into the early morning and prevent us from getting really cold. I expect lows in the mid-single digits to low teens. If the clouds clear out, many of us will drop below zero.
Monday through Wednesday morning… Transient ridging will give us a break so we can dig ourselves out. We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional patches of clouds. Temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below average.
Winds… Monday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range. *** We could see some drifting snow Monday afternoon. *** Tuesday afternoon wind will peak around 10mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Lows will be 0 to -10.
Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening… The next system will move through. It won’t be organized and will lack moisture so snow amounts will be low.
Timing… Scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains Wednesday afternoon and over the valley in the evening. The best chance for snow is Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Snowshowers will taper off in the valley Thursday afternoon but will linger over the mountains into Thursday evening.
Snow amounts:
Valley: 2-4”
Mountains: 4-8”
Winds… Wednesday peaks will be 20-25mph. *** Watch for drifting snow Wednesday afternoon. *** Thursday peaks will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-20s to around 30 and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Thursday highs will be in the low to high 20s and lows Thursday night will be 0 to -10.
Thursday night to Friday night… We’ll get a brief break between storms. Expect quite a few clouds and scattered snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. Lucky spots in the valley could get an inch of new snow and 1-3” is possible in the mountains.
Saturday into Monday morning… The next storm is trying to get its act together. There are currently a wide range of outcomes, so forecast confidence is low. I’ll tackle this one in Tuesday’s post.
I’ll do a quick Facebook post tomorrow morning and then a more thorough post tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn
8 Responses
Hello, Can you guys explain the “donut hole” effect? Why on the radar it showed no snow but clearly it snowed all day. Thanks
Jules, yes. This is a link to an article I wrote almost two years ago. I have another update I was going to post tonight or tomorrow. We’re getting close…
https://pagosaweather.org/2022/02/17/we-want-our-weather-radar/
Hi Arleen,
Thank you so much for the information about “donut hole.” It was very interesting, Was that target of doppler up and running by summer of 2023 reached or is it behind schedule?
Shawn how much did we get in Pagosa? I’m guessing 14 inches. My wife says 16. Please settle this debate?
Randall, in town varied from 11 to 14”. The area varied from 7 to 20”. So you’re both right. 😉
Shawn will have a map with the 2 day storm total in his post today.
You have the most reliable and accurate weather forecast than any other source my wife and I utilize. With the realization of all of the many variables that are involved in attempting to produce an accurate forecast, you and your crew do a magnificent job.
Now, please stop the snow. We are old, continually tired and grumpy and are starting to swear frequently. The mountains are lovely and beautiful to gaze upon in the winter months but my wife and I… not so much!
Russ, your wish is our command. No snow today.
P.S. Russ, thank you for your kind words. It means a lot to us.