Winter Storm Warning!

Winter Storm Warning

Saturday 1-6-2024. 9:25am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 30 degrees and the low this morning was 16 degrees. Winds gusted to 18mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 67% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Precipitation was light, with the biggest snow totals only around a half an inch.

Snow2
COCORAHS 24hr snow reports ranged from zero to 0.6 inches.
Snow 2
COCORAHS 24hr melted snow totals ranged from zero to 0.03.

Pagosa Springs historical data for January 6th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3555/ 1956-2-37/ 1971
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our next winter storm on Sunday!

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Screenshot 2024 01 06 074502
Winter Storm Warnings in pink.

Current Watches, Advisories and Warnings for our area:

Wolf Creek Pass:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 405 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024 Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 405 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 19 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Pagosa Springs:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 327 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024 Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 327 AM MST Sat Jan 6 2024 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. * WHERE…Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Monday.

Forecast discussion…

If the low clouds ever break this morning, we should see partly cloudy skies ahead of a trough that is approaching our area from the Pacific NW. As this trough approaches, lots of moisture will be drawn in from the SW, giving us a good chance for snow from after sunset through Monday morning. This next system is stronger than the last one and we should see some very decent snow totals by Monday morning. Forecast snow totals are 8-12 inches in the valley and 12-20 inches for the mountains.

Look for cold temperatures for the next week with lows mainly in the single digits and highs struggling to reach freezing. Our next storm will move through later next week, with chances for snow beginning as early as Wednesday afternoon. Thursday looks like another snowy day…Shawn takes over tomorrow and will have a better handle on next week’s snow potential.

Trough
Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a strong trough approaching from the Pacific NW this morning. As it moves SE and puts us into a moist SW flow, our odds for snow ramp up starting tonight.
GJ Snow
NWS in Grand Junction is predicting 8-12 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs between tonight and Monday morning.
NWS
The latest NWS model is predicting 12 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 11 inches for Chama, NM and 18 inches for Wolf Creek between tonight and Monday morning.
StormTotalSnow
NWS in Pueblo is predicting 12-19 inches of snow for Wolf Creek Pass between tonight and Monday morning.
HRRR 2
The latest HRRR model is predicting 8.4 inches of snow will fall between tonight and Monday morning.
NBM 2
The latest NBM model is predicting 10.9 inches of snow will fall between tonight and Monday morning.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Becoming partly cloudy around midday with highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph. Becoming mostly cloudy in the late afternoon with a chance for snow showers after sunset.

Sunday: Cloudy with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the low to mid 20’s. Snow shower rates start increasing around midnight and continue all day and into the evening…snow could be heavy at times with some blowing snow during the day. Winds SW 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Total snow from Storm #2: 8-12 inches in the valley and 12-20 inches for the mountains.

Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly clouding in the afternoon with a few snow showers, mainly in the morning. Lows in single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds SW 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with lows -5 to single digits and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with lows in the single digits and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A few snow showers during the day. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with lows in the single digits and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Snow showers during the day. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph. 3-5 inches of snow in the valley and 5-10 inches for the mountains.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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