It’s Snowtime!

Snowtime

AI image by Mark Langford

Wednesday 1-3-2024. 8:35am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 43 degrees and the low this morning was 13 degrees. Winds gusted to only 7mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 31% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize over the past 24hrs!

Pagosa Springs historical data for January 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3551/ 1981-1-32/ 1911

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Advisories 1
Winter Weather Advisories in blue and Winter Storm Warnings in pink…Chama, NM is in a Winter Storm Warning.

Current Watches, Advisories and Warnings for our area:

Wolf Creek Pass:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 356 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Thursday.

Pagosa Springs:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 237 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 237 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, locally higher amounts along the mountain base. * WHERE…Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 11 PM Wednesday to 11 PM MST Thursday.

Forecast discussion…

Low pressure #1 is developing over SE California this morning and will drift ESE during the day. Over the next 48 hours this low will drift eastward, putting us into a SW flow aloft and giving us a decent chance for snow on Thursday and Thursday night. Depending on the final track of this storm, we could see snow totals of 3-6 inches in the valley and 4 to 8 inches for the mountains. After a break on Friday, an even stronger low will move into our area, giving us a good chance for snow from Saturday through Monday morning. Early snow forecasts for #2 are 5-10 inches in the valley and 9-17 inches for the mountains. Look for highs to remain at or below freezing from at least Thursday-Monday of next week.

Screenshot 2024 01 03 081633
As seen on the latest water vapor imagery, Low pressure #1 is developing over SE California this morning and will drift ESE during the day. Over the next 48 hours this low will drift eastward, putting us into a SW flow aloft and giving us a decent chance for snow on Thursday and Thursday night.
StormTotalSnowWeb1 CO 1
The NWS from Pueblo, CO is forecasting 3-4 inches of snow from storm #1 for Pagosa Springs.
StormTotalSnow PUB
The NWS from Pueblo, CO is forecasting 4-6 inches of snow from storm #1 for Wolf Creek Pass.
Screenshot 2024 01 03 072616
How much snow the latest NWS model is predicting will fall between late tonight and Friday morning.
NBM
How much snow the latest NBM model is predicting will fall between late tonight and Friday morning.
Euro
How much snow the latest Euro model is predicting will fall between late tonight and Friday morning.
Screenshot 2024 01 03 082543
The latest NBM model is predicting 15 inches of snow will fall between tonight and Monday morning.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Partly cloudy during the day, becoming mostly cloudy in the late afternoon and evening. Lows in the teens and highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph

Thursday: Cloudy with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Snow showers starting around midnight and continuing during the day and into the early evening. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A few flurries during the day. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Total snow from Storm #1: 3-6 inches in the valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

Saturday: Partly cloudy during the day with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A chance for snow during the day, ramping up after sunset. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Sunday: Cloudy with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Snow showers all day and into the evening…snow could be heavy at times. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. A chance for snow showers in the morning. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with lows -5 to single digits and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Total snow from Storm #2: 5-10 inches in the valley and 9-17 inches for the mountains.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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