A tale of two storms…

Peak showers

In what looks more like a photo taken in late spring, a few snow showers formed behind Pagosa Peak on New Year’s Eve. © 2024-Mark Langford

Tuesday 1-2-2024. 9:15am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 41 degrees and the low this morning was 16 degrees. Winds gusted to only 5mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 30% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize over the past 24hrs!

Pagosa Springs historical data for January 2nd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3553/ 1981-1-37/ 1911

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

The stage is set for a return of winter over the next 6 days as two low pressure systems are heading our way. Some longer-range models predict a third storm later next week…we may finally be seeing the type of snows that we expected to see during an El Niño pattern!

Tomorrow, a low pressure will form over Las Vegas, then begin to move eastward. Depending on the final track of this storm, we could see snow totals of 3-6 inches in the valley and 4 to 8 inches for the mountains. After a break on Friday afternoon through Saturday, an even stronger low will move into our area, giving us a good chance for snow from Saturday night through Monday morning. Early snow forecasts for #2 are 6-12 inches in the valley and 10-20 inches for the mountains. Look for highs to remain at or below freezing from at least Thursday-Monday of next week.

gfs deterministic conus z500 barbs 4358800
Low pressure #1 will be over northern Arizona tomorrow night, putting us into a SW flow aloft and giving us a decent chance for snow on Thursday and Thursday night.
Grand Ju
The NWS from Grand Junction, CO is forecasting 5 inches of snow from storm #1.
StormTotalSnowWeb1 CO
The NWS from Pueblo, CO is forecasting 4-6 inches of snow from storm #1 for Pagosa Springs..
Wolf Creek
The NWS from Pueblo, CO is forecasting 4-8 inches of snow from storm #1 for Wolf Creek Pass.
Screenshot 2024 01 02 075135
How much snow the latest NBM model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.
Screenshot 2024 01 02 075338
How much snow the latest Euro model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.
GFS 1
How much snow the latest GFS model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Partly cloudy with highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy during the day, becoming mostly cloudy in the late afternoon and evening. Lows in the teens and highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph

Thursday: Cloudy with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Snow showers starting around midnight and continuing during the day and into the evening. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A slight chance for snow showers in the morning. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Total snow from Storm #1: 3-6 inches in the valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

Saturday: Partly cloudy during the day with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A chance for snow during the day, ramping up after sunset. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Sunday: Cloudy with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. Snow showers all day and into the evening…snow could be heavy at times. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the mid to upper 20’s. A chance for snow showers in the morning. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Total snow from Storm #2: 6-12 inches in the valley and 10-20 inches for the mountains.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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