Two storms this week!

Happy New Year

Happy New Year from Pagosa Weather! AI illustration by Mark Langford.

Monday 1-1-2024. 9:20am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 46 degrees and the low this morning was 16 degrees. Winds gusted to only 9mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 23% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize over the past 24hrs!

Pagosa Springs historical data for January 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3659/ 1981-1-20/ 1991

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

Double good news this week…two storms heading our way and we don’t have to worry about snow levels, because they will stay below 6000 feet! Finally, El Niño’s moisture may be paying us a visit after hanging out in the Pacific NW for the past month.

Over the next 48 hours, high pressure will be in control, keeping us mostly sunny. A low pressure will track along the Mexico-US border tomorrow, bringing us a few more high clouds, but will be too far south to bring us any precipitation. By Wednesday night a low-pressure will form over Las Vegas, then begin to move eastward. Depending on the final track of this storm, we could see snow totals of 2-5 inches in the valley and 4 to 8 inches for the mountains. After a break on Friday afternoon through Saturday, an even stronger low will move into our area for Saturday night through Monday. This storm has the potential to drop at least double the totals for storm #1, but being almost 6 days out, it’s too early to get overly excited yet!

Long range outlooks are leaning towards below normal temperatures and slightly above normal odds for precipitation through the middle of the month.

Screenshot 2024 01 01 081426
A low-pressure system is forecast to form over Las Vegas on Wednesday, then move eastward. This will become storm #1 and give us a good chance for snow on Thursday-Friday morning.
Screenshot 2024 01 01 080520
How much snow the latest NBM model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.
Screenshot 2024 01 01 080711
How much snow the latest Euro model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.
GFS
How much snow the latest GFS model is predicting will fall between late Wednesday night and Friday morning.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Partly cloudy with highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the teens and highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Snow showers during the day and into the evening. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning and partly cloudy in the afternoon with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s. A slight chance for snow showers in the morning. Winds SW 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph.

Total snow from Storm #1: 2-5 inches in the valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

Saturday: Partly cloudy during the day with lows in single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. A chance for snow after sunset. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Sunday: Snow showers all day…snow could be heavy at times.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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