Above normal temps for the next few days, then a chance for rain/snow later next week.

Frosty the snowman is not going to like the next four days! AI illustration by Mark Langford

Don’t forget about tonight’s 3rd Annual Christmas Celebration. Click on the link below for more information:

3rd Annual Old Fashioned Christmas Celebration! – Pagosa Weather

Saturday 12-16-2023. 8:45am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 41 degrees and the low this morning was 14 degrees. Winds gusted to only 5mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 61% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize over the past 24hrs!

Pagosa Springs historical data for December 16th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4060/ 19594-24/ 1940

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

A very mild week ahead (for December) not only for us, but for most of the country. A low-pressure system will drift south along the California coast next week, giving us a chance for rain/snow starting as early as Wednesday. By Saturday, the low will start moving east, and onshore to the south of San Diego, where it will eventually become part of a trough that moves NE, ramping up our rain/snow odds over next weekend and possibly through Christmas Day. There are a lot of variables, but there is a chance we could see several days of precipitation from Wednesday-Monday. I use the word “precipitation” because this will be another warm system and our snow levels could stay above 8000 feet for much of the time there will be moisture around. The good news is that our mountains are over 10000 feet and will see nothing but snow from this system! The other good news is that we at least have a chance for a White Christmas, which will be in short supply for much of the USA this year.

Shawn takes over tomorrow and will be updating this system and our odds for rain/snow.

gfs deterministic conus z500 barbs 3332800
A low-pressure system is forecast to arrive along the southern California coast on Saturday morning, then move NE over the weekend. This should give us a chance for rain/snow starting as early as Wednesday of next week, with odds increasing over the weekend.
Screenshot 2023 12 16 080756
How much snow the latest NBM model is predicting will fall between next Wednesday-Christmas Day.
Screenshot 2023 12 16 081200
How much snow the latest Euro model is predicting will fall between next Wednesday-Christmas Day.
Screenshot 2023 12 16 081239
How much snow the latest GFS model is predicting will fall between next Wednesday-Christmas Day.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Sunday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 40’s. A slight chance for rain/snow showers. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with lows in 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. A slight chance for rain/snow. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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