A few scattered snow showers today…

Probably the last day up at the lake this winter!  – Pic taken 12/7/2023

Probably the last day up at the lake this winter!  – Pic taken 12/7/2023

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Friday – 8 Dec 2023 – 9:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 24.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4256 / 19818-19 / 1909

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The tail-end of the trough will move through our area this evening.  The best moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The tail-end of the trough will move through our area this evening.  The best moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over the mountains that are moving west to east.
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over the mountains that are moving west to east.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A few scattered snow showers today ***

*** Dry with a gradual warming trend through Tuesday ***

*** Next chance for snow is Wednesday and Thursday ***

Rest of Friday…  We’ll get a few “scraps” as another system slides to our north. The trough will move through our area this evening.

Timing… Spotty snow showers will end this evening in our area.

Snow levels… Will be below 6,500ft.

Snow amounts…

Valley: a dusting in a few lucky spots

Mountains: 1-3”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 30s to low 40s and lows tonight will be in the low single digits to  low teens

NWS snow forecast shows less than an inch for Pagosa and 1-3” for our mountains
NWS snow forecast shows less than an inch for Pagosa and 1-3” for our mountains

Saturday through Tuesday… Ridging will build back over the region giving us lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 10-15mph range.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be 30 to 40 and lows Saturday night will be 0 to 10. On Sunday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.  Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday and Thursday… The next system will move through. It won’t have much moisture, so my expectations are low.

The forecast models are still all over the place, so I don’t have any confidence in the forecast details. Hopefully things are more clear when Mark takes over on Sunday.

Euro ensemble snow for Wednesday and Thursday shows 1-2" in the Pagosa area.  Right now that looks reasonable to me but I don't the trust the forecast models.
Euro ensemble snow for Wednesday and Thursday shows 1-2″ in the Pagosa area. Right now that looks reasonable to me but I don’t the trust the forecast models.

Mark will take over on Sunday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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