A little snow on Friday…

Pagosa Peak poking through the clouds  – Pic taken 12/2/2023

Pagosa Peak poking through the clouds  – Pic taken 12/2/2023

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Monday – 4 Dec 2023 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 38. The low this morning was 16.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 7mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464 / 190610-19 / 1952

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The moist northwest flow, yellow arrows, is finally breaking up as the ridge, blue jagged lines, builds along the west coast.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The moist northwest flow, yellow arrows, is finally breaking up as the ridge, blue jagged lines, builds along the west coast.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Warmer, sunny, and dry through Thursday. ***

*** A little snow on Friday ***

Monday through Thursday… The ridge will continue to build through Wednesday leading to lots of sun and a warming trend. We’ll see a few more clouds Thursday as the ridge weakens and moves to our east, but we’ll stay dry and warm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 5-10mph Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. On Thursday afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Thursday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Friday to Saturday morning…  We’ll get “scraps” as another system slides to our north.

Timing… The first few scattered snowshowers will start over the mountains Friday morning. The best chance for snow is Friday afternoon to Friday evening. Scattered snow showers could linger over the mountains into Saturday morning.

Snow levels… Will be below 6,500ft.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains: 2-5”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Friday night will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens

NBM snowfall to Saturday at 5pm shows 0.9” for Pagosa, 1.1” for Chama, and 3-5” for our mountains. This looks reasonable to me.
NBM snowfall to Saturday at 5pm shows 0.9” for Pagosa, 1.1” for Chama, and 3-5” for our mountains. This looks reasonable to me.

Beyond Saturday… I don’t see any big storms in the next two weeks. The main storm pattern will stay to our north – very un-El Nino like.

Euro ensemble snow to 18 Dec at 5pm – The storm track, yellow arrows, is expected to stay to our north. This looks more like a La Nina pattern, not El Nino. We could catch a few scraps from systems sliding to our north, but I don’t see anything to get excited about for the next two weeks.
Euro ensemble snow to 18 Dec at 5pm – The storm track, yellow arrows, is expected to stay to our north. This looks more like a La Nina pattern, not El Nino. We could catch a few scraps from systems sliding to our north, but I don’t see anything to get excited about for the next two weeks.
Euro ensemble meteogram 24-hour snowfall to 18 Dec at 5pm – It’s dry today through Thursday and then a weak system will move through on Friday. It’s dry again 10-16 Dec and finally, the pattern gets more active at the end.
Euro ensemble meteogram 24-hour snowfall to 18 Dec at 5pm – It’s dry today through Thursday and then a weak system will move through on Friday. It’s dry again 10-16 Dec and finally, the pattern gets more active at the end.

My next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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