I don’t like this pattern…

At 1:30pm, snowshowers are just starting to develop over our western mountains  – Pic taken 11/30/2023

At 1:30pm, snowshowers are just starting to develop over our western mountains  – Pic taken 11/30/2023

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Thursday – 30 Nov 2023 – 2:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 44. The low this morning was 18.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 7mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4458 / 19569-14 / 1975

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s a complicated pattern that I don’t like. The first system missed us to the south.  The second is disorganized and will be overtaken by the stronger, primary trough that is currently moving into the Pacific NW coast. It will move through our area Saturday morning. The best storm energy and moisture will be over the central and northern mountains.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s a complicated pattern that I don’t like. The first system missed us to the south.  The second is disorganized and will be overtaken by the stronger, primary trough that is currently moving into the Pacific NW coast. It will move through our area Saturday morning. The best storm energy and moisture will be over the central and northern mountains.
Radar this afternoon – As of 1pm, there was nothing in our area.  The weak trough over NV just has a couple of weak showers associated with it.  The main trough, moving into the Pacific NW, has more precip.
Radar this afternoon – As of 1pm, there was nothing in our area.  The weak trough over NV just has a couple of weak showers associated with it.  The main trough, moving into the Pacific NW, has more precip.

Forecast Highlights…

*** More clouds and periods of snow showers late Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the South San Juan Mountains for 5-10” of snow with higher amounts on south or southwest facing slopes.  It’s valid 5pm Thursday to 11pm Friday. This advisory does not include Pagosa Springs. ***

Thursday through Saturday night… As expected, the first trough missed us to the south. The second will move through Saturday morning and will be disorganized.

By Saturday afternoon moist northwest flow sets up so our snow machine turns off while the snow machine for the central and northern mountains turns on. In our area, we’ll see spotty snow showers mostly along, and on the other side of The Divide into Sunday morning.

Timing… The first scattered snowshowers are developing over the mountains as I type. Snow showers will become more widespread Friday morning to Friday night. Scattered snow showers will linger into Sunday morning, mostly over the mountains. Precip will mostly be light and fall on and off through the period.

Snow levels… Will peak around 6,500ft Thursday afternoon and then go down from there.

Snow amounts:

Pagosa area: 2-4”

Chromo/Chama area: 3-6”

Mountains: 8-12”

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs Thursday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Friday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Highs Saturday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

NWS snowfall indicates 2-3” for Pagosa and 8-12” for Wolf Creek.
NWS snowfall indicates 2-3” for Pagosa and 8-12” for Wolf Creek.

Sunday through Thursday… Sunday clouds will decrease, and snow showers will end over the mountains as drier northwest flow takes over. The ridge will continue to build through Wednesday leading to lots of sun and a warming trend. We’ll see a few more clouds Thursday as the ridge weakens and moves to our east, but we’ll stay dry and warm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph on Sunday, 10-15mph on Monday, and 5-10mph on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be 0 to 10. Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week with highs in the low to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

My next post will be tomorrow. I also hope to do the November Summary/December Outlook tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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