A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the mountains…

Another pretty sunrise – “Red sky in the morning”?  – Pic taken 11/29/2023

Another pretty sunrise – “Red sky in the morning”?  – Pic taken 11/29/2023

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Wednesday – 29 Nov 2023 – 3:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 40. The low this morning was 13. The cold spots were near 5 this morning.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 5mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4358 / 19739-25 / 1952

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge, blue jagged line, will move through our area today. There isn’t much to the trough, red dashed lines, moving through southern CA. The trough will intensify as it moves east into southern NM, yellow arrows. The red arrows show the two branches of the jet stream.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge, blue jagged line, will move through our area today. There isn’t much to the trough, red dashed lines, moving through southern CA. The trough will intensify as it moves east into southern NM, yellow arrows. The red arrows show the two branches of the jet stream.

There is nothing on radar across the entire western US this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** More clouds and periods of snow showers Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Southwest San Juan Mountains for 5-10” of snow with higher amounts on south or southwest facing slopes.  It’s valid 5pm Thursday to 11pm Friday. This advisory does not include Pagosa Springs. ***

Rest of Wednesday… The ridge will move through our area today. Upper-level southwest flow will lead to more clouds tonight.

Winds… Peaks will be 5-10mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Thursday through Saturday night… The pattern will be more active with two weak troughs moving through the region. The first one is sliding south of us on Thursday. The second will move through Saturday and will be disorganized.

Timing… The first scattered snowshowers will develop over the mountains Thursday morning and then become more widespread late Thursday afternoon to Friday night. Scattered snow showers will linger into Sunday morning, mostly over the mountains. Precip will mostly be light and fall on and off through the period.

Snow levels… Will peak around 6,500ft Thursday afternoon and then go down from there.

Snow amounts:

Valley: 3-6”

Mountains: 8-12”

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs Thursday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Friday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Highs Saturday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

NBM snowfall at 11am Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. An inch or two is possible in the valley each 24-hour period – it’s mostly light snow. I think this over-doing snow in our area, especially for Chama and our mountains.
NBM snowfall at 11am Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. An inch or two is possible in the valley each 24-hour period – it’s mostly light snow. I think this over-doing snow in our area, especially for Chama and our mountains.
NWS snowfall indicates 3-4” for Pagosa and 8-12” for Wolf Creek.
NWS snowfall indicates 3-4” for Pagosa and 8-12” for Wolf Creek.

Sunday through Tuesday… Sunday clouds will decrease, and snow showers will end over the mountains as drier northwest flow takes over. The ridge will continue to build through Tuesday leading to lots of sun and a warming trend.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph on Sunday, 10-15mph on Monday, and 5-10mph on Tuesday.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be 0 to 10. Monday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 0 to 10. Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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