Scattered snow showers Thursday through Saturday night…

Pagosa Peak at sunset  – Pic taken 11/26/2023

Pagosa Peak at sunset  – Pic taken 11/26/2023

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Tuesday – 28 Nov 2023 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 35. The low this morning was 5. The cold spots were near -5 the last two mornings.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 3mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4361 / 196610-15 / 1952

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – This is a disjointed pattern. The ridge is still to our west and giving us mostly clear skies. The ridge will move our area tonight and clouds will increase tomorrow. The low wants to track farther south – not good news for us.
Water vapor satellite this morning – This is a disjointed pattern. The ridge is still to our west and giving us mostly clear skies. The ridge will move our area tonight and clouds will increase tomorrow. The low wants to track farther south – not good news for us.

There is nothing on radar across the entire western US this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** More clouds and periods of snow showers Thursday through Saturday night. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Wednesday… High pressure will persist along the west coast and bring us upper-level northwest dry flow. We’ll see lots of sun and a gradual warming trend, but temps will remain below average. Clouds will start increasing Wednesday ahead of the next system.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the high single digits to mid-teens and lows Wednesday night will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

NBM precip to Wednesday at 5pm shows some along the CA coast and light precip just starting over parts of northern AZ.
NBM precip to Wednesday at 5pm shows some along the CA coast and light precip just starting over parts of northern AZ.

Thursday through Saturday night… The pattern will be more active with two weak troughs moving through the region. The first one is sliding south of us on Thursday. The second will move through Saturday and will be disorganized.

Timing… The first scattered snowshowers will develop over the mountains Thursday morning and then become more widespread Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning. Scattered snow showers will linger through Saturday night. Precip will mostly be light and fall on and off through the period.

Snow levels… Will peak around 6,500ft Thursday afternoon and then go down from there.

Snow amounts:

Valley: 3-6”

Mountains: 8-14”

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s. Lows Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Saturday morning will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Lows Sunday morning will be 0 to 10.

NBM snowfall loop from Wednesday at 6pm to Sunday at 11m – It shows the first light scattered snow showers starting over our mountains Thursday morning. Snow becomes a little more widespread Thursday afternoon but remains mostly light through much of the period. By Sunday morning it shows 5.1” for Pagosa, 7.6” for Chama, and up to 15” in our mountains.  The forecast models have all trended lower in the last 24 hours. It’s a disjointed weather system that is not giving me a “warm fuzzy”.
NBM snowfall loop from Wednesday at 6pm to Sunday at 11m – It shows the first light scattered snow showers starting over our mountains Thursday morning. Snow becomes a little more widespread Thursday afternoon but remains mostly light through much of the period. By Sunday morning it shows 5.1” for Pagosa, 7.6” for Chama, and up to 15” in our mountains. 

The forecast models have all trended lower in the last 24 hours. It’s a disjointed weather system that is not giving me a “warm fuzzy”.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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