Sunny but chilly through Wednesday – More snow the second half of the week…

Love the new snow!  – Pic taken 11/25/2023

Love the new snow!  – Pic taken 11/25/2023

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Sunday – 26 Nov 2023 – 3:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 30. The low this morning was 17. A couple of cold spots were in the 1 to 3 degree range this morning.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464 / 194313-20 / 1952

Precipitation summary… Snowshowers lingered through much of the day yesterday.  Snowfall amounts were light. 0.2” was the most reported.

Wolf Creek reported another 2” of new in the last 24 hours. That brings their storm total to 24”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high off the OR coast and the jetstream flowing into our area from the northwest (yellow arrows) will give us dry weather through Wednesday. The high will weaken and move to our east Wednesday, allowing a couple of systems to move through during the second half of the week.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high off the OR coast and the jetstream flowing into our area from the northwest (yellow arrows) will give us dry weather through Wednesday. The high will weaken and move to our east Wednesday, allowing a couple of systems to move through during the second half of the week.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Sunny with temps 5-10 degrees below average through Wednesday. ***

*** More clouds and periods of snow showers early Thursday morning through Saturday night. ***

Sunday night through Wednesday evening… High pressure will persist along the west coast and bring us upper-level northwest dry flow. We’ll see lots of sun and a gradual warming trend, but temps will remain below average. Clouds will start increasing Wednesday ahead of the next system.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph.

Temps… Lows Sunday night will be 0 to 10. Highs Monday will be in the low 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens.  Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5pm is minimal across the western US.
NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 5pm is minimal across the western US.

Wednesday night through Saturday night… Two systems will move through the region, one on Thursday and another Friday night to Saturday morning.

Timing… The first scattered snowshowers will develop over the mountains early Thursday morning and then become more widespread from sunrise to sunset on Thursday. Showers will then be spotty Thursday night through Friday morning. Round two will ramp up Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Spotty showers will linger through Saturday night.

Snow levels… Will peak around 6,500ft Thursday afternoon and then go down from there.

Rough first guess snow amounts:

Valley: 4-8”

Mountains: 10-18”

*** My forecast confidence in the details is low. I will continue to adjust the timing and snow amounts as the data gets better. ***

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 30s. Lows Thursday morning, Friday morning, and Saturday morning will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Lows Sunday morning will be 10 to 20.

NBM snowfall loop from Wednesday at 11pm to Sunday at 8am – It shows 1-3” on Thursday and then another 3-6” Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Right now this looks reasonable to me.
NBM snowfall loop from Wednesday at 11pm to Sunday at 8am – It shows 1-3” on Thursday and then another 3-6” Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
Right now this looks reasonable to me.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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