Scattered showers this afternoon – Snow for all of us tomorrow?…

It’s great to see a potentially active weather pattern!  It’s too early to trust this, but it looks promising.  – NBM total snowfall to 29 Nov at 5am

It’s great to see a potentially active weather pattern!  It’s too early to trust this, but it looks promising.  – NBM total snowfall to 29 Nov at 5am

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Saturday – 18 Nov 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 57. The low this morning was 26. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 25%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4664 / 194315-15 / 1958

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge has finally moved to our east. The trough is over western AZ and will move into our area this afternoon.  It will have enough moisture and instability to stir up scattered showers. Tomorrow’s trough is impacting CA this morning.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge has finally moved to our east. The trough is over western AZ and will move into our area this afternoon.  It will have enough moisture and instability to stir up scattered showers. Tomorrow’s trough is impacting CA this morning.
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over central AZ moving east ahead of the trough. Radar isn’t picking the scattered showers in the Lake Powell and Blanding areas that are moving towards the Four Corners.
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over central AZ moving east ahead of the trough. Radar isn’t picking the scattered showers in the Lake Powell and Blanding areas that are moving towards the Four Corners.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A round of scattered showers Saturday afternoon and then more showers Sunday afternoon and evening. ***

*** Many of us will get snow on Sunday! ***

*** Driving conditions will be sketchy on Wolf Creek Pass Sunday through Monday morning. ***

Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The remnants of the low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Two troughs will move through our area.

The first trough will move through this evening.  It will be weakening as it nears and won’t have much moisture, but we’ll get some scattered showers.  The best chance for precip is during the afternoon.

The second trough will move through Monday morning.  It will have more moisture, more storm energy, and colder air. It’s unstable enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two – thundersnow! The best chance for precip is noon Sunday to midnight.

Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow levels:

Saturday to midnight: around 9,000ft

Saturday after midnight: dropping to 7,500ft but showers will be few and far between

Sunday to late afternoon: 7,500ft to 8,000ft

Sunday after sunset: dropping to 6,500ft

Snow amounts to Sunday at 8am:

Valley below 8,000ft: none

Valley above 8,000ft: a few flakes

Mountains: 1-3”

Snow amounts Sunday morning to Monday morning:

Valley below 7,500ft: up to 1”

Valley above 7,500ft: 1-2”

Mountains: 3-6”

Winds… Gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Highs Sunday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.

HRRR forecast radar loop starting at 11am on Saturday and ending 4am on Monday – Showers start increasing over the area by 1pm – valley rain and mountain snow. The main batch of showers moves through Archuleta County 1:30pm to 3:30pm. Spotty showers linger through Saturday evening and then things are pretty quiet most of the night. The next batch of showers moves through Archuleta County 11:30am Sunday to 3pm. It’s mostly heavy wet snow. Showers become more scattered through evening and start moving towards the south and southwest.
HRRR forecast radar loop starting at 11am on Saturday and ending 4am on Monday – Showers start increasing over the area by 1pm – valley rain and mountain snow. The main batch of showers moves through Archuleta County 1:30pm to 3:30pm. Spotty showers linger through Saturday evening and then things are pretty quiet most of the night. The next batch of showers moves through Archuleta County 11:30am Sunday to 3pm. It’s mostly heavy wet snow. Showers become more scattered through evening and start moving towards the south and southwest.
NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains.
NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains.
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.6” in the Pagosa area, 2” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains.
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.6” in the Pagosa area, 2” for Chama, and up to 8” in our mountains.

Monday afternoon through Thanksgiving afternoon… Ridging will rebound along the coast and dry, upper-level northwest flow will prevail. Monday afternoon through Wednesday we’ll see lots of blue sky, a warming trend, and no precip.

Clouds will increase Thanksgiving afternoon ahead of the next system. 

Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thanksgiving highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20 to  low 30s.

Thanksgiving night to Sunday afternoon… The next system is trying to line up. It doesn’t look impressive but could create poor driving conditions.  It’s too early to trust the details.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon