It’s great to see a potentially active weather pattern! It’s too early to trust this, but it looks promising. – NBM total snowfall to 29 Nov at 5am
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Saturday – 18 Nov 2023 – 9:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 57. The low this morning was 26. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 25%.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 9mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 46 | 64 / 1943 | 15 | -15 / 1958 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
*** A round of scattered showers Saturday afternoon and then more showers Sunday afternoon and evening. ***
*** Many of us will get snow on Sunday! ***
*** Driving conditions will be sketchy on Wolf Creek Pass Sunday through Monday morning. ***
Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The remnants of the low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Two troughs will move through our area.
The first trough will move through this evening. It will be weakening as it nears and won’t have much moisture, but we’ll get some scattered showers. The best chance for precip is during the afternoon.
The second trough will move through Monday morning. It will have more moisture, more storm energy, and colder air. It’s unstable enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two – thundersnow! The best chance for precip is noon Sunday to midnight.
Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.
Snow levels:
Saturday to midnight: around 9,000ft
Saturday after midnight: dropping to 7,500ft but showers will be few and far between
Sunday to late afternoon: 7,500ft to 8,000ft
Sunday after sunset: dropping to 6,500ft
Snow amounts to Sunday at 8am:
Valley below 8,000ft: none
Valley above 8,000ft: a few flakes
Mountains: 1-3”
Snow amounts Sunday morning to Monday morning:
Valley below 7,500ft: up to 1”
Valley above 7,500ft: 1-2”
Mountains: 3-6”
Winds… Gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Highs Sunday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows Sunday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Monday afternoon through Thanksgiving afternoon… Ridging will rebound along the coast and dry, upper-level northwest flow will prevail. Monday afternoon through Wednesday we’ll see lots of blue sky, a warming trend, and no precip.
Clouds will increase Thanksgiving afternoon ahead of the next system.
Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 15-20mph range.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thanksgiving highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20 to low 30s.
Thanksgiving night to Sunday afternoon… The next system is trying to line up. It doesn’t look impressive but could create poor driving conditions. It’s too early to trust the details.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
